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Alio Gold Inc. T.ALO

"Alio Gold Inc is a gold mining company. It is engaged in exploration, development and production in Mexico. Its projects include San Francisco mine in Sonora, Mexico and the development stage Ana Paula project in Guerrero, Mexico."


TSX:ALO - Post by User

Comment by profittaker1on Jun 12, 2017 4:27pm
151 Views
Post# 26354050

RE:Cheap Warrants

RE:Cheap Warrants
@godisgr81, you could be right but the risk/reward isn't really there. If gold tops out at $1300 or $1350 in 2017, you are going to be hung out to dry as there is no underlying support for the warrants in the current share price. There are better warrants out there for optionality on the gold price. Compare them to AGB.WT. You pay only $0.03 in time value for 3 extra months to expiry (Aug 20, 2018). AGB.WT is in the money and only trading with 1/7th the time value (adjusting for the 10-1 conversion of ALO warrants vs 1-1 for AGB warrants). Also there is arguably a more bullish case for AGB moving up with the former CEO of Teck Cominco in control, deposits in Canada, 2 new 43-101s for satelite deposits coming out in the next month, 2 deposits starting to produce 90k ounces at end of Q3 at $500/ounce and an updated life of mine plan with 4 deposits feeding the mill at the end of Q3 as well. Here is the corporate presentation: https://atlanticgoldcorporation.com/investor/presentations/. Another comparison would be NDM.WT.B. 4 years to expiry (3 extra years) for only $0.07 cents total in time value. NDM has potential for a large upward move (100-200%) if the company finds a JV partner. Cantor Fitzgerald just published a report stating they will likely find a JV partner this year and the stock would be worth $5 CAD/share in that case. Meaning the warrants potentially have almost 300% upside this year and are supported by the underlying value of the stock at a cheap valuation. Being a pessimist, I think there is 50% probability of success for NDM this year, a little higher longer term. Here is the Cantor Fitzgerald report: https://www.docdroid.net/zyTqPkf/northern-dynasty-minerals-limited-cantor-fitzgerald.pdf.html
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