RE:RE:Don't believe media saying that opec needs...Marty57 wrote: TradeMtl, I agree that it appears right now that the world is awash in oil and a return to $100 oil is hard to imagine. But most people did not imagine 30 and 40 dollar oil 4 or 5 years ago either. One thing that people seem to take for granted is a never ending tranche of supply coming from the large traditional sources-- I'm talking about the super giant fields in the persian gulf and elsewhere that make up such a large share of world oil production. I don't know when these fields will start to go into decline, but they are getting older every year and decline will happen. When these large fields go into decline they will likely go down very hard (like Cantarell and Prudhoe Bay). Here is a good article addressing this issue:
https://energyskeptic.com/2015/giant-oil-field-decline-rates-and-their-influence-on-world-oil-production/
The main point is that the large tranche of production from Saudi et al cannot be taken for granted, and when it starts to go down it will be difficult to replace. Not many super giant fields are found since 1980. I know this issue is a long term factor, but to me the BIG question is when will the old reliable fields that produce so much of world oil supply go into irreversible decline? What price of oil will be needed to supply the world then? Maybe $100+
It's human nature. When the market goes up for a while, everyone thinks it will always go up. When it goes down everyone thinks it will always be down. Why? Well it's obvious, because today (or this time) things are different. History be damned.
The reality is, it's only a matter of time before oil goes back up. The question is, how much time.
Cheers.