RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:What I hear about SNStbnorthstar - I agree with your take on things at these levels, thanks for your well thought-out logical response which seem to be tough to come by on the Bullbords.
My concern is that supply is more abundant than mainstream was assuming 6 months ago. I think you're spot on with rail cars (logistics) being the bottleneck. Competitive logistics are more important than available product, and possibly more important than the quality of product. Peers in industry have told me that Permian players are starting to consider using lower quality sand sourced right from the dunes in Texas. This wipes out any competitive logistical advantage for any supplier outside of the core Permian area. The basis for this decision is that when lower quality sand crushes under lower closure stresses the perm is still orders of magnitude greater than the matrix. Given than sand costs at the wellhead are ~75% transport logistics ($160/Tonne at the wellhead, $40 of which is the mines cut) there is a big financial win to cut those costs. Under this scenario, the available sand to market is essentially infinite.
Rising tides lift all boats, when oil rallies this name will do well. At this time it will be prudent to take some off the table IMO