RE:GXE: Heavy Oil and NON-contiguous acreageGood points and I agree George98.
One thing to keep in mind given GXE's exposure to heavy diffa is commodity pricing leverage. This works in both directions, because most costs are fixed, every incremental $ move in either way impacts their cash flow greater than their lighter producing peers. So IF you think oil will trend higher in the next 1-3 years, GXE's CF will relatively outperform peers. Same goes to the downside, if oil trends lower, this story does not make sense. It's ultimately a call on oil pricing.
Second is GXE's valuation. They trade at 3.6x EV/DACF vs. their peers at 5.3x. Their balance sheet is also pristine, managing a D/CF of 0.9x vs. peers at 1.9x. All '18 NB numbers. From a valuation perspective, this is extremely cheap and worth a look
You are right, their land base is scattered and unconsolidated. This does not work longer term (Think Pengrowth, PennWest, etc..), but you dont have to own this for 15 years, it's a 1-3 year story in IMO. They have some of the best Wildmere wells out there and their Belly River wells outperforming type curve, with more to come.
The Jr. space will be the last place funds flow. No one cares right now, American capital has completely dried up (in-part thanks to our incompetent PM and AB Premier). We need resolution on NAFTA, BAT, and WTI before fund managers can feel confident in allocating capital in Canada. If I have $500MM to allocate is sure wouldn’t be to a unpredictable political jurisdiction that's egress constraints, that's for sure. A conservative government would also help but that's a Q419 story, at the earliest. Capital hates uncertainty. There will be a time and place for Jr's like this, not sure it's now.