RE:What is the "Real" price of Uranium?99 - once again thnx for the INCREDIBLE well researched and written description.
Myself, I think the paradigm has shifted. The market used to trade like DC depicts, the spot market being a small part of the overall consumption of U. Not so recently. Trade tech's latest commentary stated that only 800k lbs traded weekly. That works out to about 40M lbs per year traded on the spot market. I made a similar comment about six months ago, that the actual quanity of U being trade on the spot is closer to 50M lbs per year. World consumption is what 150-175M lbs per year, the spot is now a significant percentage factor in keeping the U price beat down.
Likely it has been the Kazaks and Russians, the Kazaks with their capacity to swing produce (coupled with their wierd laws) and capture market share and the Russians with their capacity to underfeed that have been and continue to be driving the spot lower. The conspiracy people amongst us would say it is an effort to corner the market. I like to believe that neither governement understands capitalism.
I also believe that the spot will become less of a factor when the shortage begins to manifest itself next year. I think the orignal DC paradigm will restore itself given all the positive news we are exposed to. I like to think that there are not now just 60ish reactors under construction but rather 80ish - the other 20 being the Japanese reactors that have applied to restart. The other 18 or so Japanese reactors that are idled - advanced planning stage.
The only problem I see going forward is how to pick the top!
regards and thnx again for the info - B2S2