Alaris Royalty Corp ALARF

Bull Flag Forming?

[ownedit]

Looks like a Bullish Flag forming.  Today it closed the gap up that formed a couple of days ago.  Good Q numbers next week could spark the next jump.  A break out of the flag pattern with descent volume should put it on the road to the about 25.00, with the ultimate goal of filling the gap down in the 28.00s.  That should come when they resume raising the dividend.  

Analyst Brenna Phelan noted the necessity of getting more clarity on Group SM, but she seems blissfully unaware of recent developments including recent loans to Group SM that will cover a lot of what they owe to Alaris, if they wished.  

Group SM is looking for a win in "a client dispute." If this is about Algeria, it is promising.  The Algerian Government oil company recently settled a dispute with French company that I believe has partnered with Group SM in the past.  Either way Alaris looks like it is covered.  Group SM has assets to sell to cover Alaris's investment, their recent loan to cover payment to Alaris, and the potential to resolve a major dispute with a client.  Saying Alaris risk is still significantly elevated with GroupSM seems a little much.

IAM gave Group SM $28 million in a loan in May.  If Group SM was such a risk, why are they loaning it to them?  

Things have changed and keep changing for the better for Alaris.  However the stock price is not reflecting shifts in the company's fundamentals.   To me it is mis-priced to the downside now. 

Looking for a break out next week.