RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Platreef NPV 8% = ZeroRandom thoughts for the moment, on multiple topics:
I don't know why Bloom gets so much flak. He offers some sckepticism, a healthy thing. I think he's off a bit off on the calculations, but some of the love for RF borders on the absurd on this board. Marcus Lundin has said RF is good, but he's made mistakes in the past. RF is a mortal human. For me, the mines have the worlds best grades. Unfortunately they're in the worst jurisdictions. Do your own analysis.
As Topadvisor says, I am indeed a small fry. He had some great posts about not sticking with it when you haven't made your first million. That's so true. I myself have trimmed twice. I didn't want to lose critical funds for retirement. But, given the grades and the story, I would never sell out entirely no matter how bad the news gets.
Bloomberg article and IVN response was interesting. I didn't think the article was that bad. IVN reaction was consistent with past responses to journalists articles. On the one hand, it shows how on the ball IVN is when stuff like this happens. So you can imagine how they manage the affairs of the company in other areas...we've got sharp management. On the other hand, the article didn't slam IVN, it was more of an indictment on Kabila and the corrupt regime in the Congo. A bit of an overreaction from IVn on items that aren't that important? Maybe. I also felt IVN responses were weak on some points. The DRC is one of the most corrupt and difficult jurisdictions to operate. Lars suggested they didn't know the owners of the companies on some of the contracts they awarded which I find questionable. You ought to be acutely aware of share ownership on all outsourcing receivers which exceed a certain financial threshold. Particularly when you know jurisdictional corruption is the major risk associated with the story. Anyway, the sooner the response and story goes away the better. I didn't find it that big a deal anyway. I must say I'm not a fan of Lars the CEO. He seems a bit slow. It's RF that drives the bus and has all the talent...
on the $900M of interest for Platreef again, good and bad. On the good side, another 100m and were there. Sounds like they're are multiple parties, so this is good. On the bad, they've been at this a while and they don't have a term sheet yet, let alone a formal debt agreement. Term sheets are non binding that precede the larger, formal and binding debt agreement. Are they having trouble raising the debt or is RF just ensuring the players are there to optimize the rate? Im pretty sure it's the latter, although macro news out of SA and DRC isn't ideal at the moment. I'll be curious to see what the interest rate is and I'm sure there will be fireworks and commentary once the deal is announced. I remember some comments on this board when they announced the Zijin partnership on this board. Some were really, really pissed. But then, look at where the share price is now. I'd like a deal relatively quickly as I think it will cement a floor in the stock price. SA is better than DRC for predictability. Even if the interest rate is a tich high, the grades will produce such huge profits in a few years time, the rate will be forgotten.
Have a good weekend everyone. Topadvisor, bloom, evh5150 and johnnyola, I'm enjoying your posts lately.
Cheers and GLTA