RE:RE:RE:RE:Great Article Wow. Just wow. If your on the retail side then you must have made a fortune playing the cycles on this one. Yeah the retail end is pretty cut and dry so I can imagine your need for black and white bottom line numbers on a timely basis.
Vision is everything and sometimes although on the surface such things as inferences, possibilities based on potential, and probabilities appear a bit as you say " irrational " but for some form the basis for wise decisions.
As you know the oil business has many forms of risk. Even the steady proven solid companies are full of surprises.
Dont be surprised if my deductions come true. Probability is a big factor.
Its the first thing that's asked when you drill a well. What's the probability of success! How big can it be? How well will it produce? What is the decline rate? What is the future economic climate? Political instability?
The industry works on probability. It's all underground. You cannot see the target reservoirs and structures combined with reservoir non homogeneous surprised.
Each investor has his or her own way of assessing risk and probability. That's what make the bullboards interesting.