TORC Oil & Gas Ltd. VREYD

RE:RE:Oil Price

[Newguy23]

Yes I watched that.  He figures there will be a big pullback below 40 followed by a "new bull run" in 2018.  Soooo, here is my problem with his thesis.  If there is a pullback happens below 40: 1. what causes it - shale goes through the roof? - The market is already predicting a straight line up to the right (over-optimistic on rate of growth IMO).  Iraq jumps immediately back to full out production after Mosul take over - unlikely, but almost priced in?  These situations are already expected. 2. If this magical pull back happens, why does he figure it is over in 3-4 months and back to fullout upside - the only way that happens is due to headline risk and momentum guys. 3. He argues that the Saudis are lying about decreasing shipments to the US - he cites the recent weeks saudi imports at around 400,000 if I remember correctly, far more than expected.  What he fails to mention is that despite the info he cites, we got a major draw in crude - Wow, that actually looks bullish.  Imagine what happens when the Saudi's really do cut back on US shipments (And they will because it will caus a big spike in price).  I am not sure yet if Joseph is a momentum guy or just trying really hard to time the market.  Either way, if you have 6-12 months to wait, he is an oil bull.  Don't buy a company that is going bankrupt in the next 3 months on a short term pullback would be what I would gather from his commentary