PATIENCE required So why is the spot price languishing?
Back in 07, when U hit it’s all time high Kazakstan was producing 6,637 tU. In 2014 they are pumping out 23,127. (WNA - https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/facts-and-figures/uranium-production-figures.aspx)
Canadian production on the same dates has remained essentially flat while Australian tU declined about 3,000 tU. (WNA)
The other six or so sizeable producers have essentially remained flat over the same period.
Total primary procudction for the same years, was 41,282 tU in 07 increasing to 56,252 tU in 2014 (WNA) and in 2013 production hit 59,673 tU.
We see that Trade Tech generally reports, in more recent years, that about 800k to 1M lbs U is traded on the spot mark weekly. This is about a third of the total 2017 demand of 67,867 tU required to operate the world’s reactors. This one third of demand transacted on the spot market is equivalent to what the Kazaks produce. Coincidence?
In 2011, Fukushima happened and at that time 454 reactors were acutally operating and consuming U. Today WNA lists 447 reactors operable ( WNA - https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/facts-and-figures/world-nuclear-power-reactors-and-uranium-requireme.aspx ) which means they are connected to the grid. (see the footnotes for this definition) On this table Japan shows up as having 42 operable reactors and we know that the actual numbers of reactors that are consuming U in Japan is 5. So to compare the number of consuming reactors with 2011 deduct 37 form 454 and we get 417 that are actually burning U.
For the last few years about 60 reactors have been consitently reported as under construction. Review of the WNA sites listed above also gives a decent sense of how many reactors have been retired during the last decade and which has generally balanced the reactors that have shuttered.
When 454 reactors were actully consuming the spot price hit about $72 per lb (2011). The Kazaks were at 19, 451 and worldwide pruction was 53,494 tU (WNA).
We will be back to 454 reactors consuming by 2020, especially as part of the increase will be re-started Japanese reactors.
And soon the Kazaks will get themselves under control.
A little more patience is all tht is required.
Good Luck 2 us – B2S@