RE:My Q2 estimationHi Kha,
1/ I won't argue with the 38mio of revenue. I assume your calc is OK and thus agree with production of 2.300 ton
2/ don't understand why the costs would be 38mio? the max cost we saw so far was in Q4 2016 = 34,6 mio. CDN$ (25,8 mio USD)
3/ I also assume your 5,3 sales price per lb is correct
4/ my assumtion on cost is 3,6 per lb. This was the cost in Q4 2016. Given some improvements I deduct 2 cent bit add them again because of kiln problems.
however, I calculated a different way.
Smith said that each 0,25 cent in price would mean 5mio a year. So 5,3 - 3,6 = 1,7 = 0,25 * 6,8.
This 6,8 * 5mio on yearly basis means 34mio / 4Q = 8,5 mio.
So they should have a profit of 8,5 mio. I deduct 2 mio of invoices for the new kiln = 6,5 mio.
Of course these 2mio are accounted differently but I gues that their earnings should be between 6,5 and 8,5. Whatever it represent as EBITDA I don't know.
An EBT of less then 5mio would be very very very disappointing given the 8,5 mio as a basis. BTW, this calc of 8,5 is based on their own words.