TSXV:NYX.DB - Post by User
Post by
93Darkhorse93on Aug 07, 2017 2:01pm
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Post# 26553997
My Q2 Preview – Strong Revenue Growth and Cost Control…
My Q2 Preview – Strong Revenue Growth and Cost Control…Just antidotally I think all that insider buying this summer has given you all the indication you need that it is going to be another strong Q. I feel like a broken record the last couple Qs but I still think the argument holds. It’s all about cost control because the revenue growth continues to be there with its core OGS/OPS business growing at aprox. 20% clip.
Revenue - 62M (Up 75% YoY and 5% QoQ) last Q before you start annualizing the OpenBet acquisition. You should continue to see real strong revenue growth out of the core platform as it has a strong pipeline of clients already preannounced in the rollout process. (28 customers with development contracts not yet launched as of March 31, 2017!!!)
Gross Margin – 88% range looking for continued stable strong gross margin following the OpenBet acquisition. Any 0.10% Gross margin improvement they can find is an incremental 250K of annualized EBITDA. Nothing to sneeze at.
Admin & Personal Costs - <(9.0)M & <(26.5)M this is where the rubber will meet the road, Q1 was a solid first step in reducing these costs as a percentage of sales QoQ, will have to continue to see progress here to drive that 30% EBITDA margin target.
Profitability – 17.5M EBITDA (Up 67% YoY) this will give you a constant EBITDA margin of 28.5% as Q1, I stick to my target of 30% EBITDA Margin by Q4 which brings an additional 3.6M of annualized EBITDA to the bottom line.
Outlook – Any discussion on continued proactive steps on debt repayment and progression on cost rationalization to hit that 30% EBITDA target. Any clarification to analysts about future revenue growth because estimates seem way too low for 2017 and 2018 revenue targets. TSX listing talk might make some others happy!
TARGET – 100M EBITDA in 2018 (Sticking to my 2018 EBITDA Target)
On Valuation: 2018 10x EV/EBITDA close to a 6.00/share or 6x EBITDA close to 7.50/share (STILL HAS MULTIBAGER POTENTIAL NOT EVEN REQUIRING MORE THAN 10% REVENUE GROWTH!!!)
In my top three holdings alongside AVE.V, AT.V and NYX.V (Feel free to discuss any or message me!) Big week for AT.V with earnings tomorrow, I love these scalable platform based business models with strong margins.
LONG