RE:RE:RE:And now for something a little more interestingSome Montnety is over pressured. With 10kpa/m gradient being normally pressured, anything under that being under pressured and anything over that being over pressured. Montney can range from ~8.5kpa/m to ~13kpa/m. I believe BBI's lands are slightly over pressured, close to 10.6kpa/m.
I don't believe that being over pressured is reason along for going tighter and more tonnage, no. But, the Montney is relatively homogeneous, production results (IP 30, IP180) vs tighter spacing and higher tonnage have a very high correlation in the Montney. Over 80%. There are many other formations that have more geological variances, which means the productivity of the well has more to do with reservoir quality vs. completion technique (homogeneous reservoirs vs. heterogeneous reservoirs).
CUMM is never decreased with a more intense frac, but there's no proof that's it's actually increased at some point. This gets technical and would need more time! Basically going from 100m spacing to 50m spacing will yield better RELATIVE performance (IP and EUR) than going from 40m spacing to 20m spacing, again, relatively speaking. Law of diminishing returns.
There's theory out there that at some point, the tighter and more sand you pump simply accelerates production, not increases total CUMM. Furture results are forecasted and unknown, your completion costs are not and there is an economic cross over at some point. Sure, you can drill at great well like Leucrotta did (just released this morning). That well probably cost them $5 million. A technical success, probably an economic success. There are operators out there drilling and completing wells in the Montney, in the same lobe for 25% cheaper. They are also getting ~20% better wells.
BBI is throwing everything AND the kitchen sink at these wells in terms of spacing and tonnage (I haven’t seen costs yet, but they will be expensive!), for a marginal well. If there next set of wells come in to close to the same IP's you know that the reservoir is not quite the quality as some of the other players out there. Not all Montney is created equal. To boot, these are sour.... which means more issues and expense relative to the sweet players.