RE:RE:RE:RE:LOST ANOTHER 2% TODAYTim,
I’m sensing some frustration on your part, so I will try and keep this short.
Are you denying the fact that Aphria has been able to monetize their intellectual property? Do you have anything to suggest the press releases put out were inaccurate or misleading, because if you do, I would certainly like to hear about it.
Can you please name another LP besides Aphria that has been able to monetize their intellectual property?
I would agree with you that a lot of people swear by their brand of coffee, but there is no denying the fact that coffee or even teas for that matter are commodities. It is often said “Coffee is the world’s second most traded commodity after oil”. You can debate the validity of the statement, but I don’t think you can deny the fact that coffee is a commodity.
Prohibition is what stood in the way of consumers and cheaper highs. With legalization, although regulated, will come cheaper product. Think tea bags, which cost pennies when purchased in bulk. My point being Cannabis is a commodity and in markets for commodity products the lowest cost producer wins. Would you not agree that when it comes to commodity products lowest cost producer wins?
I don’t know who will be the lowest cost producer in two years, but I do know who the lowest cost producer is today. If you know of any LP producing at lower costs than Aphria, please do tell.
You mention that you measure business in sales, customer satisfaction and diversity. I know that profit and EBITDA also matter to you, even if you omitted them.
You are absolutely right when you state, “because Aphria has future plans does not mean they will materialize into sales”. You would also have to agree that your statement applies to any LP just not Aphria, right?
Are you referring to Fabrice Taylor when you mention that Aphria’s penny stock plays are starting to gain a lot of attention? Fabrice was upset and rightfully so because he lost money by investing in Cannabo. However, if we are going to look at Cannabo wouldn’t it also be fair to mention Aphria’s other investments? Perhaps we can take a quick look at Liberty Health.
Now we all know that you like market cap of companies. You told us you did. With that in mind let’s take a look at Aphria’s investment in Liberty. Aphria invested $25 million and owns approximately 38% of the outstanding shares. Total shares issued are approx. 294 million. Shares are currently trading in the $1 range on any given day this past week. That would put their total
market cap at $294 million, making Aphria’s investment in Liberty worth approximately $112 million. Are you and Fabrice advocating that Liberty was a bad investment? Is Liberty an example of the
“penny stock syndrome” you mentioned?
Anyways, I do apologize because I did say I would try and keep this short.
I’m really pulling for Canopy on Monday. Let’s hope their quarterly report continues to boost the sector from where Aphria left off.
TimMcCracken wrote: Monteviale wrote: Birdy, unless you are day trading you shouldn't take such a micro look at what shares are trading at from day to day basis. You need to look at a much broader time frame. Consensus amongst analyst is that Aphria is the best performing stock since last November spike when circut breakers went crazy.
Birdsplitter wrote: Mick1Edwards wrote: Dropping coppers at an exuberant rate. Next week will put us into the SEVENS if Canopy doesn't produce winning numbers. None of it matter if North Korea pops off a scud. We lease keep in mind that this will be our last post in English as beginning Monday we will talk in tongues. }}<~>~}{|\]{~|~£^^€>%. CEO Solar "Mick" Flair
at least we weren't Aphria this week
Minty,
You have Penney stock syndrome.
Are you aware that a companies worth should be measured in market cap and not the share price? To say Aphria has performed the best since all time highs is not correct.
All time high valuations;
CGC @ $2 billion
APH @ $1.13 billion
today's valuations;
CGC @ $1.46 billion
APH @ $807 million
this implies;
CGC is -27% off all time highs
APH is -28.5% off all time highs
So before you get all high and minty please understand the facts and maybe find some new analyst to follow as they are giving you incorrect information ... Perhaps in the future cannabis can serve as medication for penny stock syndrome.
I have mentioned previously each company has diluted their stock by 250% over a two year period. One has been able to grow revenues to $16.4/ quarter and growing, the other has been investing in risky penny stock plays that as starting to gain lots of attention.
I measure business in sales, customer satisfaction, and diversity. CGC has proven they can grow revenues over the past 8 quarters at a much higher rate then APH. Again both companies diluted their structure by 250% +/- so we are playing apples to apples. Just because APH has future plans does this mean they will materialize into sales? What if rec does not emerge and it's only the medical market that can be serviced? APH is trading at 36 times sales, the market will not accept this ratio in only a medical setting. CCG is trading at 22 times sales (based on last Q of $16.4 +/- accounting for Mettrum missing month). This P/S should drop on Monday if of course sales are greater than $16.4 are reported.
20 times is high but growing at 20% QoQ translates into 9.5 times 4 quarters from now and 4.65 times 8 quarters out. 20 times could turn out to still be high if there is no rec, but it's not too bad considering 20% can be maintained. Arguable it is very easy to see that the company that requires rec the most to support their share price is APH, as CGC based on sales is a lot more reasonably priced ... which is odd because all you APHers say you are just going after the medical market, which makes zero sense to me.
Lets remember that there is nothing proprietary that APH does. I was once told by a smart man (Prof) that their proprietary advantage was the "sun" ... I hope that's not true.
You build a business with great brands that people love, you keep them satisfied which keeps them choosing your brands every time, they tell others and as word spreads revenues continue to grow. Once you've hit a point where there is limited growth propects you then focus on profitability and cutting cost. Maybe you hire an industry consultant or experienced farmer to share best practices, maybe you found your "enough put" and you cut staff to maximize your revenue per employee ... or If the sun if really the only proprietary source/ advantage maybe you cut the roof of smith falls? ... my point is you get creative and find ways to survive, cut costs and prosper ... but you are limited to how much you can prosper if you don't have the brand power, customers, or business (revenues).
Also sure this may turn into a commodity ... but this isn't crude oil or gold ... I view it as coffee ... lots of different brands and prices out there ... and we all know coffe nut customers swear by their choice of brand.
Regards,
Tim