RE:RE:RE:Stink bid comingtony1969 wrote:
Using todays metal prices of about $2.80 copper and $1300 gold the NPV is $1.449 billion. So I guess you are saying that a bidder would likely have to pay 80% of that if we had the PFS done today for example and the NPV was close to that? If thats the case then we would get about $4 per share US as a valuation without Bisha and its resources and all targets that are now being explored and future ones at both mine sights.
Thank you for your question. first of all if you go back through my early day posts on NSU you will see that the RMC PEA has some inherent shortcoming so I would not put too muck credeance in the NPV. First of all the timeline is way too aggressive (we should be producing in 2019), and secondly the capital cost are too low.
To answer your question...Yes...but read through my posts you will find some info.
tony1969 wrote:
I have been trying to find a % of NPV on how to value Timok. Youre saying roughly 30% for inferred, 50% for M and I and up to 80% after the PFS. How did you arrive at those %'s? Several factors are involved like location, metal prices, sector sentiment, etc..I think any potential bidder will wait for the study unless there is a low ball offer before hand. I believe this stock is a strong buy here if one is willing to get over these short term issues. Thanks in advance pal..
Bidders do not like risk they will tend to wait, unless they have done their DD and feel that their bid is risk adjusted and will be acceptable to the board and major shareholders. This process is expensive and is not taken lightly.
So to answer your question...It's complicated, but essentially the category of Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves determines/defines the chance that the mineralization is there. In essence an Inferred resource would povide a confidence of 10% to 30%. Indicated 50% and measured up to 90%. A Reserve is an a better than inferred catergory and has a minimum of a PFS study to back-up its profitable extraction. StewartCatso wrote: <blockquote class="BBQuote"><div><cite>WheresMeGold wrote:</cite> IMO this is the single biggest mistake retail investors make when investing in mining companies. They look at the amount of resources in the ground while not fully understanding or appreciating the cost to mine it. I'm not saying NSU is exploiting this but many mining companies do exploit this in attracting investors' money.</div></blockquote><br /> <br /> Yes...It's all about net margins on recoverable ores. For more good references read the following paper...<br /> <br /> <a href="https://www.basinvest.ch/upload/pdf/Valuation_of_Metals_and_Mining_Companies.pdf" class="BBLink" rel="noindex nofollow" target="_blank">https://www.basinvest.ch/upload/pdf/Valuation_of_Metals_and_Mining_Companies.pdf</a>
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The stock is a strong buy because it is doing the right things to clean things up and it's trading below book (or break-up) value of $2.92US and $3.67 CAD (Referencing the Q2 balance sheet). Unfortunately the market does not acknowledge Bisha's value or a combination of Timok/Bisha (I really cannot tell the difference).