RE:RE:FYI - No one knows what the stock will do on the day of newsThanks for all the excellent work you do Alphagroup. It is appreciated!
I have an oversized % of my portfolios allocated to NAK/NDM so I follow it religiously. I agree with what you say, but I wonder if I'm having confirmation bias and not giving enough thought to other views. I find it unblelivable that shorts are adding to their position leading into a large catalyst. I think we would be wise to assume they have a good reason for doing this. Perhaps we should try to figure out what their reason might be? Rather than dismiss it as just stupidity. Shorts are usually fairly competent and experience investors, we shouldn't underestimate them.
I remember the posts by John, shorts are playing musical chairs, and playing hot potato. And smart shorts are selling to dumb shorts. That could well be the explanation. But again, seems unlikely shorts would be this dumb and reckless to add at these levels, unless they don't like money or making profit wasn't their objective?
I think we should consider all angles and leave no stone unturned, that way there are less surprises. I have to admit, I was surprised the stock could come back down this much after the EPA settlement news. I thought, this is it, now a huge risk is gone and the stock is gonna fly. And yet, the shorts were able to drive it way back down and keep it down. I do think there will come a point when they can no longer contain the share price. The secondary offering at 1.85, the insiders not selling at 3.39. Those facts weren't enough to keep the price at at least 1.85. But the JV terms should estalish a value of what the partner(s) think NAK is worth, and should once and for all debunk the short seller claims. I think it should be similar to what happened with STRP. Kerrisdale said their spectrum was worthless and no one really knew what the fair value was for that spectrum. But when big telecom came in and put a price on what they thought that spectrum was worth then that set the price. The JV terms should set the price of NAK and keep it around there. And yet, the shorts are adding. Why? Do they think the JV terms will set a price lower than the current share price? What good reason do they have for doing this?