62 cents/share annually at $5 copper for 8Mtpa LOMThat is UNDISCOUNTED annual average, after tax, for the entire 31 year LOM. Refer to Table 24-16 of the June 2017 study. The highest value given is for $4.00 copper. Yet we can easily extrapolate this to $5.00 by adding $5.3 billion of additional cash flow for every 50 cent increase in the price of copper. At $4.00 we have $27.7 billion total cash flow life of mine. Therefore, an increase of copper by one dollar would give us:
$27.7 + $5.3 + 5.3 billion = $38.3 billion total undiscounted cash flow after tax.
$38.3 billion / 31 year LOM = $1.235 billion/year average
$1.235 billion/year x IVN 39.6% share = $489 million/year to IVN
$489 million / 786 million shares outstanding = 62 cents/share
For an 18 Mtpa mine, assuming all other factors being equal,
62 cents/share x (18/8) = $1.395 cents/share
So yes, a monster 18 Mtpa mine, at $5 copper, would make IVN shareholders rich. But you already knew that. Now you know by how much. A note to some of the posters here. You don't have to perform back of the napkin, rough calculations. There is a perfectly good 588 page company study put out 2 months back that can supply the most accurate numbers available. If you refer to Figure 24-14, you can see that most of these earnings will be made in the first two decades. 62 cents/share is the average for LOM. In reality, the first two decades would show substantially higher earnings. This is all theoretical of course, and assumes IVN shareholders realize $5 copper. We're still a long way off, but it has happened in the not so distant past.