GREY:TSTIF - Post by User
Comment by
WickedTuna1on Aug 22, 2017 9:56am
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Post# 26607043
RE:Today's trading
RE:Today's tradingAgreed. Thks for all the details. Its been a perfect confluence of events to spook out weak shareholders visibility of demand remains strong and heres a reminder of some reasons Im accumulating more shares. All from the CC replay. My own opinions and sleuth work. https://event.on24.com/r.htm?e=1472312&s=1&k=ED81A2C58567EF69CD449BC9A08BBE24 1) Committed Sales Partner Finally evidence of a re-ignited commitment from Getinge that installments will accelerate(see latest Aug. prezzi on website). Remember, Getinge had a tough year last yearorganization was a mess. This 2H this year could be totally different and well likely see Getinges inventory finally draw down. I get the feeling 2H17/ early 2018 is the moment Getinge will have chewed through all of the current inventory (inflection point) for profitability. This means we should finally start to see top line ramp from the consumables streams business. As noted in call....Getinge C-Suite met w/ Ric/Glenn in June for 5+ hours straight to figure out what needs to be done organizationally to accelerate installs. Sounds like measures are finally underway w/ salesforce. I dont think Getinge is trying to starve TSO3 although its common in these types of agreements and cant rule out possibility of a hostile takeoutI think lack of installs so far while only real competitor STE (who has a obsolete product by load size, cycles, and claims) had a great quarter in sterilization business is simply a function of the fact STE is better at selling stuff. Bottom-line: Slow start for Getinge but all the sales training is happening bc product is a better mousetrap so reasonable to expect a ramp in installs. 2) Duendo scope claims/regulatory tailwinds approval is on track by end of the year (we all know this) . However, dont forget mandated sterilization for ERCP procedures (750,000 procedures done w/ duodenos) by FDA could be a 2019 maybe even 2018 event . That is huge (sell side estimates would go up even further). The recent Seattle hospital lawsuit where hospital and OEM was liable for $6M means hospitals are indeed on the hook now and this has created tremendous inbound for TSO3. 2021 could be the come to Jesus moment when sterilization of all scopes colo , endo and all GI work needs to be sterilized. The big brand hospitals will be the first to endorse that. Thats why TSO3 is getting so much inbound.via hospitals using investigational pathway (basically means they get to us VP4 to sterilize duendo's w/ out the claim being issued Which brings me to point #3 3) Expanding production: Because of the regulatory changes they see happening w/out questionTSO3 is getting more inbound and thus see enough visibility on demand that expanded production facility is a must. Already started plans to create facility (talk to Bossu) hes done the home work there. and by end of 2018 Id expect to hear about a facility that can produce 1,000 units/ year. CC said to expect to hear more. Why is this better than it sounds Because expect capital equip margins to go way up as well. Tessman head of ops is sources plenty of economies of scale and building a facility in the U.S. near a manufacturing hub city will be key ingredient (Quebec is not cheap for manufact.) yes, not a ton of catalysts outside of: CICJ article and VGH presentation in Europe likely using the data used to file for the claims which all raises awareness....but doesn't mean the company isn't extremely busy and doesn't mean the shorts are "right" Their thesis doesn't make sense to me. Stay tuned..... - Wicked