RE:RE:Sad isn't it?dosperros wrote: ERTguy wrote: Even on quality stocks like WEF we are still getting immature venture stock quality posts from the likes of Rhino and gobig. Go back to your crib and stick with your Monopoly money. Full disclosure I added to my position today. This is a terrific set up as we approach long term resistance on more sector strength today. I'm sticking with my 3.20 price target before the year is out. Cheers
This should be good for an easy 20% per year for the foreseeable futures. Most of my projections look at the value of the cash generation in the sector at 5x or 6x. Come the Super Cycle, quote unquote, stuff should trade at 10x to 12x.
In other words, a non-debt outfit run by well-meaning bozos like this, you'd expect the future-state $160M in EBITDA @ 400M shares should be in the ballpark of $4.00 per share. They could also grow EBITDA if they wanted to.
Risks are moving away from whatever the heck they are paying -- $4/M3 last I heard -- in stumpage like they've been getting away with. Sure the fan club here thinks that's swell and mighty sustainable. It's not. Regardless, this is an equity I've got maybe 5% of my float into, and that's material. It should be a win for the retirement-types who want yeild, and a steady-hand at the helm. CAPEX can be reckless and a young man's game.
To the shrieking juniors, they are no different that the shrieking seniors -- just lacking some decorum perhaos. I see no issue with a democratic board. Keep in mind, I ain't no speller -- but NOBODY on this GD board can spell. It's just fun to kick the can around, and make some freaking returns on the back of the US housing recovery as it ticks to 2.0M per year once again.
Unassuming of course the future upside in the price of lumber. I tracked the breakout in the "WOOD" ETF in relation to the price of lumber. Both which have peaked in Mid July and have been in a similar consolidation phase since the peak. However yesterday and today the WOOD ETF broke to the upside while lumber pricing is still in consolidation. It looks like the rally is anticipating a bullish continuation in lumber pricing which is obviously positive for WEF. It gave me a good excuse to add a divvy stock to my portfolio.
The only variable here is what the end game will be in regards to the U.S. Tariffs on lumber. Maybe you guys have discussed this already and I apologize if you did. I'm paying attention to a lot of different plays right now.
I suspect from reading the latest of quarterly reports that WEF seems to be very flexible with respect to what markets it can cater to IE: overseas markets, so will probably react just very short term to whatever the outcome. Hopefully our government can go to bat for Canadians for once. I see the 20% tariffs as pretty unrealistic personally. Probably just leaving a lot of wiggle room for negotiating a much lower percentage and everyone walks away from the table happy.
Personally I owned WEF briefly in 2015 so seeing the stock come back to it's highs and with the sector momentum I don't see much of a reason why this doesn't make a new leg higher on the 5 year. Just my two cents. Cheers