OTCPK:PILBF - Post by User
Comment by
seatleslimon Aug 26, 2017 11:47am
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Post# 26624760
RE:RE:50% downtown sfo markets share
RE:RE:50% downtown sfo markets shareA take under is a risk, though I think there is some protection against that insomuch as Cemex, Vulcan and Hanson all would want this asset. I escpecially can't see Vulcan sitting still while this trades to a customer/competitor in a major market for sub $200mm USD, which is no more than 10X mid-cycle ebitda and low single digit ebitda if any sort of real pricing leverge develops.
Any one of these that ends up with the operation is a threat to the two losers. Vulcan and Hanson have both acquired assets in these maerkets or ovelap them in the past few years up until recently. What the hell would Vulcan want with Shamrock if not to build moats around their market share in the Bay area. Think about it -- they are already likely paying $20 per ton on material that Polaris is likely making $4/ton.
On the plus side of not having a heavy-weight board of directors, they will get rolled if they try to direct this to anything but where it would be most highly valued -- which is one of those three, or maybe US Concrete.
This stock evaporated from the low 2s to where it is now in fairly short order. It could do the opposite quickly. What happens when they announce a deal in Seattle? When 750K to 1mm tons into long beach inevitable? When they chalk a $4+ cash margin on 1mm tons in a quarter (which is likely happening now)? Whe they receive a fine sand order in SFO or PoLB?
But youre right, for the moment the stock price demonstrates that nobody knows or cares, though its not like its some lame oil well in Alberta. It's one of the largest (maybe largest once black bear is done) sand and gravel properties on the west coast. Not prospectively -- now. I wonder if theyve considered a US listing. It's a US operation packaged as Canadian mining penny stock.