RE:RE:My crazy math Hi Kha,
Thx for you fine calculation but I think that 10 mio revenue more or less are not the main ‘thing’ now. 50mio most probable well. As long as the current prices remain this company is a cash cow.
Let’s work with you numbers.
Your price calculation and value is OK for year 1. But at the end they paid back parts of the loan, meaning that in Year 2 they need to pay back less interest.
Also, at the end of year 1, they have about 60mio on the bank. What will they do with it? Partially keep it as a buffer as working capital but hopefully reduce the loan as well.
So at the end of year 2, the eps will be higher and this eps x 20 is ???
How much will a takeover candidate pay? In some cases it is based on profit, in some cases on cash flow. So would be interesting to see which formula was used for the takeover of the cobalt mine in Congo.
Why this. Well it is the same situation. Cobalt is strategic and Vanadium will become this as well.
If you buy a company only for the profit (like Glencore could), you pay less then when you buy it for strategic reasons. The latter is the case for China.
If you would be Arias, would you sell this company for 2,5 USD a share? I wouldn’t. Don’t forget they don’t only buy the Vanadium mine but also the rest.
As Arias, I could perhaps sell a part of my investment for 2,5 USD.
Any idea whether they mentioned somewhere a reverse split? A new one I mean.
But its fun …