RE:RE:RE:RE:what if?I'm going to second Oilcan on this one. I see a lot of posts and people asking about what if Rec doesnt go legal. In my honest opinion, with Germany and the EU aside I believe that Aurora can finish Sky and use it solely for Medical and not have a problem selling the full 100k kg + their current 7k kg +whatever QC can produce.
Every LP is struggling to keep up with demand right now. Aurora signed up an additional 3,000 people and if you scroll through their facebook its full of people asking when their paperwork will be processed. Other LP's are in the exact same boat when it comes to the supply and demand and this is only medical.
Will Aurora benefit huge from Rec, absolutely, but I think they will need an additional facility for it.
In my opinion, they need a minimum of 3 aurora sky.
1 for Medical in Canada. They have talked extensively about how Medical will always come first. Why not dedicate the whole facility to medical so you dont run into any shortages.
1 for recreational in Canada. If they mirror the facility they can mainly use it for rec. However, if they run into any issues (under supply or a harvest issue in their medical building) they can have a section that they use to limp along until the issue is resolved.
1 for medical/rec in Germany. I believe Germany is only medical right now and I dont believe there is a set date for rec to be legal at this time (please correct me if im wrong). I think getting a facility in Germany will help reduce shipping costs and get their foot in the door.
Let's be honest, if things really take off, Aurora is going to need 5+ sky locations if they can stay in the EU at full capacity. I make that statement on a population basis. Since I believe they need at least 2 locations in Canada with population of 36+ million people, they will need much more since Germany is 82.5+ million people. That is 2 Canadian locations and 3 in Germany based on demand. Seems to be less competition at this time in Germany than Canada, but it will come. Open things up to the EU and you are now talking 500+million people. If 10% of the total populations (536 million * .1 = 53.6 million people in EU and Canada) consume weed, its safe to say they will consume a minimum of 5 grams a year on average, you are talking a 268M gram requirement. If Aurora Sky produces around 1M grams a year even at 10 facilities its only 3.7% of the market..... That assumes the whole EU. Similar math with just Germany + Canada is more like a 59.25M gram requirement, 3-5 facilities puts them at a 5-8% supply for the entire market. I wouldnt say those are outrageous numbers.
kudos to those who cared to read this all.... I wouldnt have, Enjoy the long weekend!
oilcan2012 wrote: Generally speaking, your correct in your assertion HOWEVER:
- This is a legacy circumstace . Trudeau announced legislation on a global stage, this being a huge blow to his ego let aone the implictions to his reputation on a world-wide stage.
- All levels of government are broke! Our taxes are increasing with any kind of tax planning eroding around us. Interco dividends, incom,e splitting; all on the chopping block.
So, what if they don't pass it! Is it really that horriric if they don't?
- The EU is going to embrace marijuana legalization starting with medical marijuana. Germany is leading the way, a dominate participant in the EU.
- Canada support medical marijuana which is well under capacity currently, outside of rec. The overarching question is, who can survuive an outright war; pricing, capacity and other arising barriers. (We all know the answer to that.)
Rec is an outright bonus to the industry, no question. In the event of a unforseen barrier, its just that, another delay which for ACB, likely won't affect their strategy execution.
We have to be patient, lets things unfold and remain supportive of the ACB Team who continues to prove that they profoundly shrewd.
quote=anmckenn]Politically, breaking a campaign promise is pretty much the norm for all politicians, why would this be different, what another year compared to years of waiting, they were talking about this back in the 70's im sure to get it right delaying their date will not be an issue. In fact they are already talking about moving it as July 1st itself has too much controversy around it as a historic Canadian national day, that will be their opportunity to kick it out months not days down the road
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