TS03 Inc Trust Units TSTIF

COO acq. of Paragard suggests TOS will be up 40% by 18' YE

[WickedTuna1]

< yesterday,="" coo="" (the="" cooper="" companies)="" announced="" acquisition="" of="" med="" device="" company="" paragard="" (iud="" product)="" for="" $1.1b="" which="" is="" 6.5x="" ttm="" sales="" for="" a="" product="" w/="" 16%="" mkt="" share="" in="" a="" mkt="" size="" of="" ~$1b/year="" revs.="" lets="" consider="" what="" this="" means="" for="" med="" tech="" cos="" like="" tos="" which="" have="" a="" stronger="" product="" differentiation="" vs.="" peers="" (jnj="" &="" ste)="" and="" operate="" in="" a="" larger="" mkt="" of="" $4.5b="" in="" equip="" sales="" (10%="" oppty="" per="" year$450mm)="" and="" estimates="" of="" $1b/year="" in="" consumables="" alone!="" point="" is:="" med="" device="" fetches="" a="" healthy="" multiple="" on="" take-outs...="" and="" tos="" is="" estimated="" to="" do="" 40m="" in="" sales="" total="" in="" 2018="" (conservatively="" estimated="" by="" assuming="" we="" see="" ~240="" units="" sold="" (by="" end="" of="" 2018)="" and="" only="" assuming="" consumables="" revs="" on="" the="" installed="" base="" sold="" in="" 2016="" +2017).="" so,="" 6.5x="" multiple="" on="" 40mm="" in="" 2018="$260M/C/$exchange" of="" 0.8239="C$" mkt="" cap="" of="" 316m+15mcash="330C$/92MM" shares="C$3.60" or="" 40%="" upside="" very="" conservatively.="" i="" say="" conservative="" analysis="" bc="" this="" comparable="" analysis="" doesnt="" assume="" any="" of="" the="" following:="" a="" takeout="" should="" have="" a="" much="" higher="" multiple="" given="" the="" re-curring="" (royalty="" like)="" revenue="" nature="" of="" the="" biz="" or="" upside="" from="" additional="" claims,="" or="" upside="" from="" fda="" mandating="" sterilization="" for="" any="" types="" of="" scopes,="" or="" any="" consumables="" sales="" revenues="" from="" units="" sold="" globally="" in="" 2018="" etc.="" which="" is="" pretty="" bearish="" given="" the="" renewed="" efforts="" of="" getinge="" training="" program.="" so="" this="" is="" my="" bear="" case..="" while="" my="" bull="" case="" ="" the="" #s="" are="" a="" lot="" bigger!!="" all="" you="" have="" to="" believe="" is="" that="" getinge="" is="" finally="" motivated="" and="" in="" a="" position="" to="" accelerate="" installations="" to="" units="" already="" sold!="" and="" based="" on="" last="" weeks="" pr="" from="" tos="" (getinge="" clearly="" is="" as="" they="" just="" invested="" on="" their="" dime="" to="" train="" all="" all="" sales="" people="" globally="" for="" 4="" weeks="" on="" the="" vp4)="" which="" de-risks="" any="" of="" the="" concerns="" out="" there="" so="" to="" me="" .pieces="" are="" falling="" into="" place="" to="" see="" sales="" pickup="" fast.="" hang="" in="" there.="" just="" my="" opinion.="">