TSX:TECK.A - Post by User
Comment by
CmoneyBmoneyon Sep 13, 2017 10:26am
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Post# 26689614
RE:RE:RE:Credit Suisse
RE:RE:RE:Credit SuisseAnalysts trying to predict FCF on a hard commodity business might be one of the most laughable "estimates" Ive seen.
This 2018 "estimate" (pull a number out of thin air and you'll be doing the same thing he did) seems grossly innacurate. Teck has spent over 2.5 Billion on Fort Hills, $640 million in 2017 alone, that Cap Ex is gone, meaning that $640 million of cash on top of first oil is going straight to the bottom line.
Hard commodities also tend to rally in the late stages of economic recoveries. We are finally on the path of synchronized global recovery.
China's economy grew more in the first 6 months of 2017 than all of last year. PPI up CPI up. Only way this analyst's FCF is remotely close to being accurate is if coking coal completely collapses. Highly unlikely since average realized price for 2018 is expected to be around $150/ton.
Im not a paid analyst but I do have access to all public information any analyst would. As does any investor. Do you own DD and youll know where this company is going.