GREY:TSTIF - Post by User
Post by
WickedTuna1on Sep 14, 2017 11:38am
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Post# 26695618
Nice Echo!! Axler, Think about AAMI news & what SP worth
Nice Echo!! Axler, Think about AAMI news & what SP worthGetinge, your TAM just grew. GO GET EM!! --------------------- Lets consider this mtg in the context of the filing TSO3 recently made for duodenos. Doesnt this make you think that FDA will act as quick as possible to approve those duodeno scope claims? Have to think this happens well before year end and this will give Getinge salesforce another feather in their cap to sell flagship product VP4 to hospitals and any facility that is thinking about cleaning scopes. -------------------------------- Getinge sales pitch to XYZ hospital: WHETHER YOU CARE OR NOT about lowering risk to your patients (nice marketing plug) and lowing $risk of lawsuit against hospital (like at Seattle) .you must know: the writing is on the wall that regulatory change is coming and sterilization of scopes will likely be mandatory. And we have the only device w/ unique claims to sterilize scopes up to blah blah blah so . Lets improve care, save you some money LT and lower future liability by scheduling a delivery of a VP4.------------------------------- New BASE CASE valuation-------------------------------------- If the installed base is ~30,000 and turns over at 5% and they take a 1/3rd share in 2019 after ramping production thats 500 units sold and my model is at $10/shr. Thats conservative execution and 0% growth in TAM, 5% turnover, and only consumables revs on prior year installed base.------------------------------ TOTAL ADDRESSABLE MARKET GROWS (TAM)---------------------------- More realistically, if sterilization is mandated for scopes and TAM of installed base grows a mere 5% (to include facilities like doctor offices, etc.) lets guess 31,500 addressable market in 2019 and TSO3 gathers the same 1/3rd share (again why would they not do better if only game in town? ) then we get to: TSO3 units sold of 1,000 units in 2019.. and viola! Stock at $14/shr on U.S. line.the OTC!! Again conservatively assuming the turnover rate stays at 5% and only consumables revs on prior units sold. ---------------------------------- Just some guess work and only my opinion and full disclosure I'm long TSO3