RE:RE:RE:RE:Painful waitingI agree with you.
Maybe I have too much optimism but that's why I'm still here.
I still see the possibility of this being a seven figure club.
Also goes back to a post I sent a while ago trying to figure out what could the share price actually get to. $1? $2,$3? more?
Was looking to see if there are people here that have more background then I in evaluating pharmaceutical stocks.
My background is not in this sector.
If we get through the two Phase II trials successfully, what does a deal look like (cash, royalty etc) and how much does the likelihood of our other products lines have at being successful?
I believe a successful Phase II trial on the efficacy trial will be significant. The Phase II dosing trial will be less significant. That is as long as no crazy negative impact on any higher dosage given, hopefully they are able to keep the dosage relatively low and still achieve significant results.
I remember reading somewhere that there is a 30% chance of getting through Phase II trials. Then it goes up to either 66 or 80 % to get through Phase III (can't remember).
If we get through Phase II, that will be very significant. Share price will reflect that I'm positive.
I have a $1 target in Q1 2018 post successful results. Not much math in this target.
You can always look at Zacks math found below. We have to account for larger share count, lower exchange price however I think there estimated 6% market share is low, more like 10-12%. That basically takes me to the $1 target in Q1 2018.
https://scr.zacks.com/News/Press-Releases/Press-Release-Details/2017/ATEV-Initiating-Coverage-of-Antibe-Therapeutics-Inc-Developing-Next-Generation-NSAIDs-Complemented-By-Tissue-Regeneration-Subsidiary-article/default.aspx There more recent publication:
https://s1.q4cdn.com/460208960/files/News/2017/Sept-5-2017_V.ATE_Bautz.pdf This values ATE at 0.85 today (according to them) using a 50% chance of approval and potential 6% market share. Fast forward to Q1 2018, if successful in Phase II trial, say that takes them to 65% chance of approval and if you think they can get 10% of the market, that $0.85 goes to $1.33.
If ATB-346 has 11B market, ATB-352 at 5B and ATB-340 at 6B, (which is also 11B for other two drugs). One could do simple math and say we should double the market cap if they have similar success. $2.66 potential over the next 2-3 years. Throw in a little bit of growth taking us over $3. That 7 figure club looks plausible.
Wouldn't that be nice?
FYI - I have no idea if my math holds up. Just dreaming.