RE:RE:RE:RE:BASHERSThanks all for not tossing me on the basher heap ! :) maybe i need to clarify my message. Really what i hope to do is temper some of the wild enthusiasm that cause people to have unrealistic expectations re price targets and expectations. I see people using margins on this which is very dangerous, or investing all in this one stock which also is dangerous. Some people buy without seeing lvl 2 quotes.
There is a usual life path for projects like these and im glad someone posted that recently. This thing will spike on news then slide until the next milestone or news event it isnt manipulation or anything else its just how the supply and demand works. Things dont just straight line up
The price doesnt always go where we want it to. I like to buy low sell high, i like to average the cost and i sell some on spikes and buy more on dips Thats my approach and what i try and share here. Dont get me wrong i make mistakes and lose from time to time but that happens less when i use some of those principles.
My opinion This will fly upon permit. If the permit happens next week then 1.40 area is the price it will take off from but if it takes a month that price will be less if two months still less etc. After the permit spike it will start a slide again until more news or another milestone. Other news ie PoG,elections, protests etc also have an impact on price.
Heres some of the +/- on this, as you already know keep them in mind when you get excited or disappointed then decide what to do and what weight to give each factor, there are other considerations add them to the list
good stuff
- first its a great project underpinned with proven and inferred resources available to open pit mining that make even the relatively low grade potentially quite profitable
- F&M has a great track record of success in the sector and in similar jurisdictions
- F&Ms purchase price (post consolidation (1.28)
- Some of the regulatory stuff is already done
- PoG and copper is trending up
- still other areas such as Stanja could boost proven and inferred
- high unemployment in Romania
- no villages to move, no Unesco sites
- no use of cyanide
bad stuff
- its Romania they have a unique political culture and in the recent past they have because of past experience have been mining averse
- even after this permit there are other future regulatory hurdles to climb not saying they wont be dealt with or that there will be probs, but there could be
- the Gabriel experience probably has some potential investors hesitant
- the Carpathian history has an impact when some investors consider this
- Some deadlines relating to the permit are unclear, and some appear to be past original target dates or estimate and because of Gabriel etc this spooks some people
- current world political situation, what happens if there is a war?
- This is not a producer there is no income much needs to be done before it starts producing. Future financing will have an impact what that will be is not known and other studies will define the development plan, but this last pp was a surprise ( not necessarily bad but a surprise)