RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:A Bloomberg ArticleI agree with what you say about conservative estimate and all that.
However, the expected recovery of EST stones can only be described in terms of probabilities.
So, until we have recovered about 10 EST stones (I guess this is about the minimum number of stones needed to hold an EST, based on what Lamb has said earlier regading this) no one can say for sure when we will. Hence, I see a risk.
But as I said before, I'm not too worried about this. Especially now when LLR is sold, considering the tax situation.
Also, it is worth remembering that the Constellation, LLR and the 372 Carat shard from LLR were all recovered in less than a single week. Those three stones resulted in revenues of over 130 Million USD.
KingFox wrote: You've highlighted and pointed out a very important "hint" and I agree there is no doubt we will get an EST sooner rather then later. (I think we also get one early in the new year, but that is a conversation for a little later.) It will also be important for mgmt's reputation in having an EST as expected, after the installation of the new circuit having just come online in Q3.
Cheers,
KF
Annayya wrote: Lamb's revenue forecast is generally very conservative so I would be surprised if Lucara doesn't meet the guidance of $200 million. We will have a more definitive answer with the Q3 comments. However, if he thinks there is absolutely no chance of 2nd EST he could've just revised the guidance at end of Q2. So there is still a very high chance of an EST. It may be as late as December but there will be one. Someone recently shared this comment from Lamb " The company continues to extract a higher proportion of so-called "specials" diamonds of over 10.8 carat, than last year. " Although he didn't go into the details of how big they are, I am confident that there's a few large stones good enough for an EST.
AndersS wrote: I'm not convinced that it will be a second EST this year. See the text from the Q2 report below.
But if not, it is not the end of the world. In fact, it could explain why we are below 3 CAD.
Also, it would most likely mean that instead there will be an early EST in 2018.
This is from Lucaras Q2 report:
"...Revenue guidance is maintained at between $200 to $220 million, however, as south lobe ore generally returns larger, higher value diamonds contributing to higher overall rock value. Revenue guidance forecast does carry increased risk based on the challenge in predicting the overall timing of the recovery of these large, high value stones."
https://www.lucaradiamond.com/mine-operations-and-exploration/quarterly-operation-update