RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Bought the FinancingVentureTrader1 wrote: The entire sector right now is looking very shaky and sitting near or below support lines that, if they don't hold mean more downside is ahead.
Perhaps we have reached the point of capitulation or close to it. I know many precious metal bugs have already left this sector in droves so where will the selling pressure come from? Doesn't mean we are at the very bottom just yet but I don't think there's much more room left in that direction.
VentureTrader1 wrote: The US dollar has broken above some resistance lines after a major selloff, so it has room to move and is showing technical strength - bad for PMs
While I agree --historically-- the correlation of gold to the dollar has been a good indicator, I am not completely convinced it still holds true today. The chart below compares the daily LBMA fix gold price with the daily closing price for the broad trade-weighted U.S. dollar index since 2000. The last couple of years don't really provide evidence for definitive strength or weakness in either instrument. Seems somewhat erratic to me. Maybe I am not reading it right.
VentureTrader1 wrote: The major indices are exploding higher - money's pouring into tech stocks and US large caps (with good reason, very business-friendly environment now, regardless of opinions of the president), so very little interest in PMs
Would you not say we are at the blow-off top stage? I say yes and many have warned with screaming indicators that we are at at the mania stage. Precicely the time I want to be positioned in the PM space. Fear is much stronger than greed and those "safe" blue chip stocks are not immune to a fear driven market sell-off. We are close.
VentureTrader1 wrote: In years and years of experience with PM stocks, I've never seen a v-bottom after a financing, even in a bull market (which we are NOT in for PM stocks) So it hit my 'at least' target, but it hit it WAY TOO fast for me to feel like that's the bottom.
Perhaps I am biased but there's too much value in EXN for it to sustain any long term downside pressure. I have stated this was a shock and awe campaign instituted by the insiders to accumulate more shares cheaply. There is absolutely no other motive for management to announce this deal when they did except to shake weak hands and accumulate more shares for the benefit of their friends. Has Sprott sold off his sizable position at these levels? No.We both agree the timing was horrendous but I think it was deliberate. Question to you is, what would be their motive in doing so now? You already know what I think. Once volume dries up completely, they will cease their paper games and let the share rise on its own merit.
VentureTrader1 wrote: ... if silver loses 3 bucks over the next month, there's no way, regardless of earnings, production cost, etc... that these guys are going to buck the trend in the sector. If and when there's an actual bull market in this sector, there will be plenty of money to be made and being in at 1.65 or 2 won't make much difference. But until then the whole sector's an exercise in knife catching, and that in my experience is a very very bad idea. If I'm proven to be wrong, I'm fine with that, actually happy
We have or are very close to capitulation in this sector. I don't see much more room on the downside. Ofcourse market manipulation can severly affect prices especially against diminishing volume, however short sellers will eventually have to contend with stronger and stronger hands as these will be the only ones left with shares. Everyone else will have already bailed.
VentureTrader1 wrote: I'm not trying to catch the bottom, I'm trying to catch the trend
The trend is your friend, until it isn't
VentureTrader1 wrote: Finally, I am in fact seriously angry that they did this ridiculous financing, after misleading retail investors into believing they'd be self-funding through cash flow, and that they did it on such horrible terms and at such a terrible time. AND I really loathe the cheerleading 'yay what a genius move by management' that gets posted here - hence the trolling. I actually bought back in to EXN based on a long history, but have been out for years and wasn't aware of the management change - my bad. I probably never would have bought back in if I'd checked that first. And sure, I'll post if/when I decide to get back in.
Thanks for your thoughtful reply, I for one value your posts and will continue reading them with interest.