RE:Conference CallIn my post on the Kisladag heap leach problems I used 5 million ounces of P & P gold. I should have added in M & ! and Inferred to calculate the per ounce cap-ex cost increase and I also should have double checked my math.
Kisladag ounces from the latest investor presentation on ELD's homepage:
Proven 5,046,000
Probable 221,000
Measured 8,047,000
Indicated 1,419,000
Inferred 4,165,000
Total 18,898,000
The additional cost per ounce of producing through a mill assuming Cap-Ex of between $300 and $400 million is $16 and $21 - not close to what I posted before.
When ELD originally did the FS, the numbers for heap-leaching must have been better than the numbers for any other process. But the reduction in recoveries for heap-leach could now make it more profitable to build the plant addition - only $16 to $21 an ounce of additional cost.
The picture doesn't look as dark as I originally painted it. The only thing is that production could be pushed back several years to add to the mill but impairment seems out of the question. They would need to borrow money though to add a mill at Kisladag as Spacegimp pointed out. If the price of gold doesn't tank, ELD should have no problem borrowing another $500 million.
Maybe the market overreacted to the possibe 3 year delay at Kisladag and a possible cash shortage and will come to its senses in the coming months. Hope so.