Canopy Growth Corp T.WEED

RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Boiler room Blue and his BS

[Monteviale]

Tim you crack me up McCracken.

Yes, you are presenting numbers in black and white.  I'm not disputing that.  But you are trying to compare a $490 dilution raise with something that hasn't even happened.  So assuming Aphria goes out and raises $490 million through issuance of shares and bank debt then your analysis goes out the window.  Its not black and white.  Your whole analysis is bassed on the assumption that the next $490 million Aphria raises is done through issuance of shares.  

My thinking is you guys got to start thinking more profitablity than losses.  

Change the name of the company.  Where did that come from?  

M

TimMcCracken wrote:

Monteviale wrote: Tim, you are assuming that Aphria is going to further dilute in order to raise $490 million dollars. I'm making the assumption that they will be able to raise part of the $490 million through bank financing.   Nothing wrong with your calcualtions if your underling assumptions are correct.  However,  my guess is that Aphria will be able to access traditional bank financing long before they ever need to dilute to the tune of $490 million dollars.  

In order to determine who got the better deal you need to take into consideration the possibility of Aphria being able to access capital by means other than dilution.  Lets see how all this plays out.  Sometimes its hard to analyze a deal in the first week.  

Don't get me wrong.  You got a great partner.  Now lets see if they can help turn the ship around.  CB was the best thing that happened to CGC shareholdees, despite Bruce walking into it backwards.  

BTW...if an investor approaches Aphria with a simialr deal to buy a 10% stake in the company tomorrow, I'm hoping management would tell them to acquire shares in the open market.  Why? because they can.  I prefer mgmt wait another 3 to 5 years to maximze shareholder value before entertaining offers.  Why 3 to 5 years? Because I believe Aphria will be worth way more after completion of phase V than it is today.   Its that simple.  My greatest fear is they sell out too soon.  Sometime management objectives and shareholder objectives don't necessarily align, however I dont feel that is the case with Aphria.   All parties are rowing the boat in the same direction.   

I also believe managment started LHS to thwart premature hostile takeover bids while providing time to expand their Canadian, U.S. and Global operations.  Stick to the long term plan while adding states one at a time.  Solid growth, great finacial statements and cash flow positive makes for a very attractive take over target.  

Who knows, maybe CB decides to get into a bidding war for Aphria 3 - 5 years from now.  Nothing wrong with that.   

Look at what happened to wineries aquired by CB.  Investors holding shares for the most part all made money.   Those that I talked to stated their only regret was that they were bought out sooner rather than later.  Shareholder value wasnt maximized.    

Good or bad, CB has locked in CGC.  There will be no bidding war by competing companies for CGC.  CB took care of that.  It is hard to determine right now how much money Bruce left on the table, if any, only time will tell.  Long term shareholders should be fine.  

With CB now involved don't be surprised to see CGC softening its stance about doing business in the U.S. 

M 

TimMcCracken wrote:

Buckshot26 wrote: Again, there was no discount.  They bought 19.9% of Canopy for a PREMIUM.  The second half of the purchase was deferred for OUR BENEFIT hence the warrants vest.  We do not want someone holding over 10% as it discourages other companies from taking a run at us.

THERE WAS NO DISCOUNT PERIOD.  THERE WAS A PREMIUM.  THAT IS WHY WE ADDED ALMOST A BILLION TO OUR MKT CAP.  You can believe boiler room blue or the mkt, your choice.

Look at boiler room blue's posting history he is no friend to you and definitely no friend to your portfolio.  The only thing that has been discounted is the portfolio of anyone who has listened to him.  I get it, he has the passive aggressive act down to a science.  Look at his posting history.

Dontbesogreedy wrote:

Hi guys, I am happy that sort of a 'conversation' is going on with arguments etc... and it is ok to say that this and that is wrong or correct and/or ectify this or that

...but can we stop with the name calling please?

In my opinion this deal is excellent and yes corona boys got a good deal...then again they are the first ones to put their money where their mouths are...so yeah they deserve a great deal.

 

did they get a discount? I don't think so since what they brought was added value, knowledge, infrastructure and contacts worldwide.

 

For the first time ever big money is waking up and afraid to miss the boat...this is good.

 

you will notice the constant buy pressure...this baby is going up!

 

buy-hold-repeat

 

Exactly ... run the math and see how much of advantage it is. 

Here’s the details; 

18,876,901 shares issued for $245,000,000 and a 9.9% stake. 

18,876,901 / 0.099 = 190,675,767 shares now outstanding 

190,675,767 - 18,876,901 = 171,798,866 shares outstanding at the time of the deal. 

18,876,901/ 171,798,866 = 10.9877914% dilution 

$245,000,000 / 10.9877914 = $22,297,474 per 1% 

You want to run the math at a 20% stake sure ...

18,876,901 * 2 = 37,753,802 shares issued for $490,000,000

37,753,802/ 171,798,866 = 21.9755828% dilution 

$490,000,000 / 21.9755828% = $22,297,474 per 1% 

in contrast APH raised $92,000,000 @ 7.25/ share 

92,000,000 / 7.25 = 12,689,655 new shares issued 

12,689,655 / 138,890,000 outstanding = 9.1364785% dilution 

$92,000,000 / 9.1364785 = $10,069,525 per 1% 

This means APH received $0.45 cents for every $1.00 CGC raised 

Or CGC received $2.21 dollars per every $1.00 APH raised. 

So as you can see CGC diluted their company by 10.98% (currently) but could be up to 21.97% in the future ... but they received $245,000,000 or $490,000,000 ... as well as a Fortune 500 company as a partner, who is 87% owned by insitutional investors, shares in strong hands, new connections, the list goes on and on. 

If APH wanted to raise $490,000,000 it would cost Longs 48.66% dilution whereas it costs CGC Longs a 21.97%

You tell me who got the better deal? 





 

 

No Montie, I am not assuming anything. 

I am just displaying the numbers in black and white as many of you are so fond of. 

My personal opinion is you guys got to start thinking more “macro” and less “micro” 

Also I think Aphria should change their name ... it’s awful, new people don’t even know how to properly pronounce it. 

Cheers