RE:RE:RE:RE:19% Here is more analysis for you as I've been doing this for mining stocks for years - 0 emotion just # crunching and no B.S:
The pull-back is beyond extreme. The stock is trading like it did in mid to late 2015 if you check charts on Yahoo Finance. Sure there are more shares outstanding;
however they own 2 more mines now (Huet did mention Hatter Graben @ Hollister is a 15 - 20 year development mine plan in CC & they want to get it right with the zones to target....there must be something there to make such a time-frame statement!) This massive drop today had to be funds liquidating out due to whatever parameters they have + I am sure heavy margin calls triggered as volume just kept increasing during CC and throughout the day & people were spooked.
This can be an easy double if they execute in Q4, reach guidance, have lower cost guidance in 2018, have
270 K (at the very minimum) to 300 K corporate wide GEO guidance NO SANDBAGGING PLEASE, and show decent Hatter G. #s in Q1 2018 per resource compilation.
I will add more to my huge underwater position to average down heavily. Usually after a huge sell off, the day after there is a smaller drop and then recovery.
Never good to buy the day after in my experience. Wait until Tuesday. Then the losers show up out of nowhere on this board (who are actually some individuals that even praised the stock just a couple months ago) and then criticize it due to pure documented ramp-up issues. Listen Huet isn't perfect, the IR J. Seaberg did not return my last two emails which is extremely unprofessional...in ramp-up phase, they should actually "under promise" "over deliver"...the opposite was done having so much optimism for Q3 and Q4 (after the Q2 report) that there was no room for error and look what happened with the 6 week delay of delivery of Hollister equipment only arriving in September. Everyone - myself include - totally blindsided by this. Plus then the waste development issues at TN & delay in accessing higher stopes only to happen in Q4 at TN.
What I still cannot get though is that GUIDANCE IS STILL RE-AFFIRMED with clear plan to reach it.
The market has destroyed this stock because of the cash burn, which isn't all that bad when objectively looking at it with zero emotion (see my earlier posting from this evening about cash analysis).
Cash on hand will increase in Q4. But yes definitely 2017 was a year of heavy spending with cash at $ 29.6 M at end of Q1 2017 and $ 51.8 M in metals inventory now you have cash at $ 20 M roughly with $ 43.1 M in metals inventory so you've spent a good amount of cash over 6 months, but this is necessary bringing 2 mines into production! (the main market fear)
Their "all in costs" also went up to $ 1150 - $ 1200
(but this includes EVERYTHING), so the investor has a super complete picture to their cost structure even more detailed than regular AISC.
NOTE: Q3 had "all in costs" that were
massive thus the $ 0.08 loss, but Barry Dahl did say annualized "all in costs" blended would still be $ 1150 to $ 1200 which was unfortunately an upwards revision but still below spot price of gold.
They need to have Q4 as their last anomaly quarter as Doolin or Morris stated and have 2018 at a CONSISTENT RUN RATE. You cannot have these bad quarter (Q1)....great quarter (Q2)...horrific quarter (Q3) results in this precise sequence...market will get freaked out as it did! These guys learned the hard way at....PISS*D OFF SHAREHOLDERS' EXPENSE.
JIN
handycap wrote: Great post. Well said!