Reliq Health Technologies Inc V.RHT.H

One more post from Narmar.....

[wjtanchak]

This earlier Narmar post spells everything out....


Also, full disclosure, as many of you can decipher from my writing, I am very bullish on Reliq in the short and long term and I currently own a significant amount of shares in the company. In fact, Reliq is currently my largest holding and I personally intend on holding on to my shares until the actual value is realized in the share price. 

• Now onto my updated thoughts on RHT / as at October 2017

Reliq has achieved a great deal in the past few months. With 2 agreements already inked for $36M CAD in annual recurring revenue and several mega pilots currently in progress, Reliq is currently extremely de-risked and the market knows it.The absolute greatest thing about RHT is that, unlike most venture stocks, Reliq is not dependent on any one deal or potential announcement. Even a timely execution on the announced deals alone (PAZ and RGVHA) could value RHT at multiples from current levels.

RHT is basically reaching a more sophisticated investor class (with deeper pockets) that only gets involved in less speculative venture stocks that are trading at a discount to value. We have already seen signs of this with Bruce Campbell recently selecting of Reliq as one of his top picks on October 12, 2017, some like Bruce does not put his name on the line lightly. Additionally, some of the names I have been hearing recently that are interested in the name are just unreal. I am talking about names that historically don’t even listen to companies below 500M market cap.  
IMO we will continue to see a steady upward trend in the share price by basically just hitting patient milestones. When we hit further patient onboarding milestones, Reliq would have demonstrated to the market the successful implementation of the 2 current customer agreements. After this is established, each subsequent agreement will carry significantly more weight just by announcing the Go-Live. 

Also, one has to assume that these two consecutive agreements have created some buzz in the marketplace and have brought in some attention from potential customers. Once we are a few months in and we start seeing some positive customer feedback along with some pilot white papers, Reliq should gain tremendous traction. This will translate into more customer agreements with patient onboarding occurring simultaneously across several customer sites. 
IMHO once the timely ramp-up of patients is demonstrated to investors by onboarding a few thousand patients on PAZ and RGVHA, RHT.V should reach a value north of a +1$ CAD on a fully diluted basis near year-end 2017. And that is if Reliq doesn’t lock down any further agreements by that time.

However, if we sign on more healthcare institutions or get a significant NR, than who knows how far the SP will go. If I had to guess, with our current investor base and the number of eyeballs on the story, the SP could really fly. Even then, the SP would only be catching up with the fundamentals of the story and not just mindless speculation using unsubstantiated potential revenue. 
Refer to further analysis of potential valuation and price target detailed below.  

• Tele-Health Industry

There is a tremendous need for Reliq’s technology in the market and that demand is increasing significantly every day. This growing adoption of tele-health is happening at a faster past year after year.

Also, for those following healthcare news this year, this trend is very evident, as some key legislation has passed in the US in 2017 that is very positive for the tele-health industry and its growth. This push by government is happening all over the world.

Essentially, compared to its full potential, the tele-health industry as a whole is just in its infancy and there is absolutely no doubt amongst intelligent people that the entire healthcare system is heading towards telemedicine. And that’s just to be able to survive the growing demand from the aging population and manage the increasing cost. So it is either use technology to revamp healthcare or just bankrupt the system. Not much of a choice there, which bodes very well for RHT.V RQHTF.

It is also very important to note that the rapid adoption of telemedicine is not only being promoted by governments around the world, it is also being heavily promoted by healthcare institutions. The main driver here of course is the bottom line, healthcare institutions can charge the Medicare, Medicaid, or the respective government agency the same fee while reducing your cost. Telemedicine = faster delivery of care = more patients seen by a doctor in a day = higher profits (healthcare institution happy) = less waiting time and backlog (patient happy, which also equals voters happy and thus governments happy). 

• Reliq’s Platform

Imagine the son or daughter that wants to make sure their parents health is stable and wants to be alerted at the first sign of change, or the home-care facility that wants to offer more advanced health monitoring to their patients and their families, or the individuals across North America that live in rural locations that need better access to a doctor, or even the entire healthcare system that has become unsustainable without tele-health and home patient monitoring to reduce cost, reduce re-admittance, and reduce longer patient wait time. As a result of all these factors, the demand for RHT’s platform is unquestionable in my opinion.

So what are some of the main functionalities provided by Reliq’s platform?
Note: This list is not a complete list, just a few main points that are continuously evolving in my opinion as different healthcare clients use the platform.

a)  Secure, cloud-based platform proving real time access to patient health by the patient’s circle of care (physician, family, care giver, etc.).
b)  Continuous patient monitoring of various health indicators (including trends and statistics), alerting the circle of care of any change in condition or leading indicators requiring intervention. 
c)  Monitors patient compliance with prescribed medication and lifestyle changes. This includes monitoring patient movement in the house and patient activity using sensors. So not only is the circle of care alerted (in time to intervene) if there is any missed or over dosage of prescription drugs, but they are also alerted if the patient is excessively frequenting the bathroom or hasn’t left the bedroom for 24 hours (among other indicators of the patient having any issues).
d)  Remote physician consultation via secure video conferencing.
e)  Supports care givers in their day-to-day workflow.
f)   Allows timely and more regular access to care to patients in remote or rural locations.  

•  But what makes Reliq Health Technologies unique is the following: 

1 - Comprehensive solution:
Reliq is the only comprehensive solution in the market. There are other companies that are targeting bits and pieces of what the Reliq platform offers, many of which only work with proprietary hardware (usually focused on a specific condition), which must be sold with the software. This is a great advantage for Reliq.

2 - Security as top priority:
The Reliq platform was developed with the highest level of security in mind. Some might not know this, but top talents in cloud security were involved in the development of Reliq's platform.

3 - Compatibility with the majority of hardware:
The Reliq platform is integrated and compatible with many of the leading hardware in the market and the list continues to grow. Essentially, Reliq does not need to worry about a better pressure monitoring devise coming to market or a customer having a brand preference. Reliq will integrate (if not already done) the hardware the customer’s choosing with the platform.

4 - Very healthy margins
Unlike 99% of venture companies, as a software company Reliq’s profit margins are north of 80%. I have witnessed many companies go from pennies to +3$ based on strong sales contracts only to retract back significantly when it becomes clear to shareholders that the company’s; low margins are making it difficult to become cash flow positive and actually grow the company as initially expected.
This will not be the case with Reliq with margins ranging from 80 to 85% of sales.

5 - Recurring Revenue Model:
With the exception of some deals made earlier (for example the white label deal with the city of San-Antonio for +1M), the majority of Reliq’s business will generating growing recurring revenue. If we take the PAZ deal as an example, once the 10K patients are onboarded, Reliq will be recognizing 7.2M USD annually and this number will continue to grow as the population ages and the number of home care patients keeps on increasing. This will be the same for every deal that Reliq signs.  IMO it is safe to expect all Reliq’s customers to grow annually at a significant pace.

6 - Ease of Scalability:
Ease of scalability is key for any business and Reliq checks all the boxes on this front. Reliq has developed a robust platform and continues to build additional functionalities based on customer needs. The key is that once any customization is built for one customer it can be easily rolled out to all future customers with the same need. Essentially, Reliq can grow exponentially year after year with absolutely no slowdown or large capital investment. The sky is the limit here.

This should not be confused with onboarding thousands of patients at the same institution at the same time. There is a cap to how many patients can be on-boarded at the same institution due to resource constraints at the healthcare institution. There is always a limited number of patient facing personnel (ex. nurses and other healthcare professionals) that are integral to the successful patient onboarding. But like I mentioned previously the steady (500 to 1000 monthly in the first few months) onboarding of patients increases the satisfaction of the patients and the staff with the platform as any concerns are addressed earlier and the strain on the institution is minimized.

7 – Top Notch Management Team:
While I think Reliq’s management team is one of the best I’ve seen for some time now, I will just focus on a couple of management team members.

CEO: Anyone that has had the fortune of actually meeting Lisa and hearing her speak in person, knows that she is an absolute Rockstar of a CEO. I personally got heavily invested after hearing the story first hand at an investor presentation in Montreal.
The ability to clearly tell the story and give confidence to the listener is not something every CEO has, other then managing the strategic direction of Reliq, this quality has been very useful with customer acquisition and with increasing Reliq’s investor base.
I have no doubt that her abilities were instrumental in telling the story to Bruce Campbell and his team, which recently got Reliq a Top Pick spot on BNN.
While managing the daily business, Lisa has managed to be on the road on a regular basis spreading the word to larger and more sophisticated money. I think getting the likes of Bruce Campbell to be fans of Reliq is just the start. This story is getting out and it is happening faster than most would have estimated.

CVO: In addition to Lisa at the helm of the operation, Giancarlo has been the key to landing the recent multi mullion dollar agreements and maintaining the ongoing pilots, while constantly meeting and demoing the platform to new healthcare customers.
I haven’t had the pleasure of meeting him personally, but from what I hear he is entirely focused on delivering the absolute best product and service to the customer. He is absolutely relentless in his pursuit of customer satisfaction. He is also very close to all that is new and cutting edge in the mhealth industry.
I personally think that landing the current agreements with a currently non-existing sales team should come as no surprise with Giancarlo on the team. I expect he has much more exciting news in the works as he seems to be constantly meeting new customers and planning new and exciting improvements to the platform.  
IMO, at some point in the near future, Reliq will hire additional account managers that will be set up for each group of customers or a specific geographical area (ex: Texas, Ontario, London, etc.,). Currently, the role of account manager and sales team is being filled by the ‘Sales & Business Development’ team at Reliq, which is basically a team of 2-3 individuals including the CVO. This is a major key success factor for this company, as current management has the know-how, networks and skill-set required to close mega deals before building staff levels that would initially not be fully utilized and would be very expensive and taxing to the company’s treasury.
Due to its strong management, Reliq’s customer acquisition cost is almost negligible as a percent of the sales contracts it has landed.

8 – Strong Balance Sheet:                                         
After the recent announcement of a 5$ PP at 40 cents a share with half a warrant at 60 cents (increased from 4$ due to demand), Reliq is expecting a really hefty cash infusion.
Also, given the current share price and what I am expecting to be further appreciation in such share price over the coming few months and quarters, Reliq can also expect an additional $7.7M to come in from warrants.
Being cashed up will allow Reliq to fire on all cylinders and accelerate potential growth. A healthy balance sheet also makes Reliq very attractive to potential investors and potential customers. For different reasons of course, but mainly they know the company has the resource to take on larger projects without any hiccups or cash shortages.

Note: It is clear that with the current share price and the recent climb in the outstanding share count (refer to stockwatch for example) that part of this $7.7M has already come in to the coffers and I expect the majority of the remaining balance to also come sooner rather than later, with continued share price strength of course. However, IMHO the upward trend will continue for many quarters ahead. Reliq is just getting started here.

Overall
The aforementioned points make Reliq very appealing to major healthcare institutions worldwide while still being a Canadian microcap (won't be the case for too long). You need to ask yourself why would Sacred Heart, the Fieldman Institute, and the NHS commence Pilots (paid for by the customer) with a small Canadian company like Reliq and why would PAZ (12k patients) and the RGVHA (38k patients) in Texas select Reliq to ink a deal with. 

• Main Business Segments:

IMO Reliq’s business can currently be segregated into the following 3 main business segments; each can be a company maker on their own (Remember my point above regarding Reliq not being dependent on any one deal. Reliq has multiple irons in the fire across its different business segments; each can potentially value RHT at multiples from current valuation):
Note: These are not official business segments for Reliq, just my personal views and interpretation of the business.

1)    Large Healthcare Institutions (ex: Mega Hospitals like Sacred Heart and the NHS)
This area relates to managing patient health, post discharge, after an operation or a stay at a healthcare institution with a main focus on monitoring the patient for post discharge complications, thus increasing the speed of intervention when any indication of problems surface. In addition to improving the patient’s health through timely intervention, patients’ readmission and the associated cost are significantly reduced.
It is also important to note that medicare claws back a significant percentage of the amount reimbursed to hospitals if the patient is readmitted within 30 days of discharge, costing hospitals a ton of money. Implementing Reliq’s platform will save large hospitals millions for a very small cost (an insignificant expense as a percent of the saving, basically pennies on the dollars saved).
This segment deals primarily with large scale institutions with a discernible amount of red tape. For this segment, the complete process from start to finish (pilot negotiation, determining pilot design & requirements, determining pilot team, patient enrollment, pilot conclusion and result analysis, contract negotiations, patient on-boarding and patient ramp up) is likely to take approximately 2-4 years.
The key aspect here is that the path to finalizing a full agreement in this segment will take time and will be completed on a multi-phase basis, however; these agreements are potentially worth hundreds of millions in recurring annual revenue when all is said and done. So while an initial revenue-generating contract is possible a few months after a pilot is concluded, the full ramp up and mega dollars will definitely take a little more time. But will definitely be worth the wait once it does happen.
Using Sacred Heart as an example, when the pilot conclusion and disclosure of results is announced, the first phase of contract negotiations will likely take a few months resulting in the onboarding of some patients. However, reaching the full potential of annual recurring revenue of 72M from Sacred Heart (Florida only) and potentially 100s of Millions through expanding into the Ascension Health network will likely only be achieved sometime in 2019. The same goes for the NHS.
While the realization of the aforementioned mega projects (in the large institution segment) will take some time, the following business segment can actually be a larger contributor to overall revenues due to the large number of small/medium healthcare institutions and the speed of decision making and signing of agreements (which is unlike the larger customers).  

2)    Medium size Healthcare Facilities (ex: Home care places like PAZ )
This area relates to managing patient health in a homecare facility on an ongoing basis. This model will most likely offer a range of services and add-ons based on the facilities’ and patients’ needs.
This business segment is probably the most important segment to Reliq’s long-term success while also being the most ignored and undervalued segment. This segment will allow Reliq to become cash flow positive in the very near term and provide the operational liquidity for Reliq to get into the big leagues and tackle the mega healthcare institutions of the world (some of which are already piloting Reliq’s platform).
As most can imagine, the red tape and time needed to sign a revenue generating agreement with a smaller institution (ex: PAZ homecare facility with 12k patients) is significantly less than that needed when dealing with large hospital systems. Additionally, this segment tends to have fewer layers of management and decision makers, which speeds things up significantly.
Accordingly, the road to a 100M in annual revenues can be achieved in less time by signing contracts with a few facilities the size of PAZ and the RGVHA. All of this can be done while the larger hospital systems take the time they need to proceed to the agreement stage.

Note: Reliq is also working on an application that will be a secure clinical database designed to anonymize, aggregate and analyze data collected from medical marijuana patients. The data will be used to statistically correlate variables (such as dosage, strain and mode of administration) with symptom relief and side effects. Ultimately, this data can be used to help identify the optimal strain and dosage for a given patient's specific clinical condition. As the platform can be used for many applications and patient needs, I am considering pain management via mmj consumption just another patient group like any other group currently being aided by the platform. I think this is aligned with the strategic direction of the company.

3)    Big Data
Big data is considered by many intelligent people to be the most valuable resource in the future. Once enough patients are on the platform, It is basically like starting a winery, where you vines mature over time and get more mature and valuable as they age. The more diverse patients we onboard on the platform, the more rich the data becomes and more valuable to potential customers. These customers, to name a few are pharmaceutical companies, governments, research institutions, etc.,
Don’t forget that Reliq just confirmed a pipeline of 48k patients just in Texas. So imagine how many potential customers in the area will be interested in that aggregated and de-identified data that is geographical specific.
When the patient population grows, the data can be segregated by region, by condition, by cross conditions, by medication, or even a mix of all.
The key here, this data becomes more valuable with age and is not a one-time revenue generator. It will be the gift that keeps on giving. 

• Current State: Agreements worth +$36M CAD in annual recurring revenue

Other than the multiple ongoing pilots; with many more speculated to be coming through the pipeline, Reliq has already closed 2 consecutive deals worth 36MCAD in annual revenue at full deployment (12k patients @ PAZ home care facility + 36k patients @ RGVHA ACO). Both of these agreements are in Texas and have recently gone live with patient enrollment.

Also, Reliq just announced reaching 1k patients on-boarded on their platform. This is a very significant milestone as Reliq has demonstrated to the market that it is able to successfully onboard patients at the promised rate of 500 patients per customer (1k additional patients monthly) and has already confirmed that this rate will be maintained through 2018. This rate will most likely increase after the first few months. Sure hitting the $36M mark is a mega milestone for the company, but with each 1k patients we get closer to that number and clock in $750k CAD in annual recurring revenue.

So what are current customers saying?

**  In a recent NR the CEO of Paz stated the following: 
“We are excited to be working with Reliq Health to support our care providers in their day-to-day workflow, freeing up more time for patient care. Reliq Health’s cloud-based portal will allow our clients’ family members to access real-time information about their loved one’s health status, care team and home visit schedule.  Patients and their families can feel secure knowing that the Reliq Health system will continuously monitor the patient at home and summon emergency services if needed.”

**  In a recent NR the President of the RGVHA stated the following: 
"We are excited to be working with Reliq Health to ensure that our patients receive the best possible care, and that we as their physicians are alerted immediately when patients need additional attention. This is critical to reducing hospital readmissions; ensuring patients successfully transition home after a hospital stay and preventing medication confusion for complex patients. Reliq's telemedicine platform will allow us to provide patients who are not able to travel to appointments with secure video appointments in the comfort of their own homes, improving access to care for patients in remote and rural communities." 

• Current State: Ongoing and Planned Pilots   

Reliq has several ongoing pilots with some of the best and largest healthcare institutions worldwide. Three current pilots with Sacred Hearth, Fieldman, and the NHS, with an additional 2 planned to start in Q4 2017 with the HHS, and Sioux Lookout. It's also important to note that the customers (i.e. healthcare institutions) pay for all pilot cost. Also, the Sioux Lookout pilot is actually funded through an Ontario Government grant. This illustrates the government support for the industry generally and Reliq specifically.

It should be noted that the cost of running these pilots range from 50 to 100K each. Accordingly, these healthcare institutions would have done a tremendous amount of due diligence throughout the process of agreeing to the paid pilot, enrolling patients for the pilot, and actually running the pilots with Reliq. They know what the platform can do, they decided they need the platform to improve patient care and reduce cost, and they decided to put some up front dollars for a pilot to document outcomes and results before proceeding with negotiating a potential agreement. So while an agreement is yet to be finalized with the aforementioned institutions, there is still tremendous value created in getting to the pilot stage with the caliber of healthcare institutions Reliq is currently working with. 

1)  Sioux Lookout – Meno Ya Win Health Center (SLMHC)
SLMHC is a fully accredited 60-bed hospital and a 20-bed extended care facility that provides health services to all residents within Sioux Lookout and the surrounding area. SLMHC provides health services to approximately 30,000 people living in 28 First Nations communities and the four municipalities.

2)  Hamilton Health Sciences (HHS): https://hamiltonhealthsciences.ca/
HHS is a family of seven unique hospitals, a cancer center and an urgent care center serving more than 2.3 million residents in and around the city of Hamilton, Ontario. With a staff of approximately 11,000, the hospital is the largest employer in the Hamilton region. HHS serves the densely populated south central region of Ontario and is also a referral centre for patients from elsewhere in the province. The HHS treats over 50,000 patients and performs over 28,000 surgeries each year.
In affiliation with McMaster University and other educational institutions, HHS also helps to train the next generation of caregivers. It has also become an international leader in hospital-based research and is recognized as one of the top two healthcare research institutions in Canada. 

3)  The National Health Service (NHS)
The National Health Service (NHS) is the publicly funded healthcare system for England. It is the largest and the oldest single-payer healthcare system in the world, providing coverage for over 54 million United Kingdom residents.

4)  Sacred Heart 
Sacred Heart health system is northwest Florida's leading provider of high-quality health care to children and adults. The hub of the Sacred Heart system is its 566-bed Sacred Heart hospital in Pensacola that includes the region's only children's hospital, a Level II trauma center, a cancer center affiliated with MD Anderson Cancer Network, and a heart and vascular institute. Sacred Heart admits more than 30,000 patients annually and has more than 4,000 employees.

It is also a member of Ascension Health, with 2,500 sites of care in 24 states and the District of Columbia (including 142 hospitals, and more than 30 senior care facilities), Ascension Health is the US’s largest non-profit health system and the world’s largest Catholic health system.

5)  The Feldman Institute
The Feldman Institute in Louisiana is an interventional pain management clinic and surgical center, and is considered to be a regional center that serves a large group of patients within Louisiana and its surroundings. The Feldman institute performs thousands of pain management surgeries annually. 

• Executing on Current Agreements, while Building a Robust Pipeline:

Reliq’s team is constantly on the road meeting with healthcare institutions and government agencies, which has resulted in a very steady flow of new pilots. So, Reliq will continue to run pilots, turn pilots into agreements, and sign new agreements directly, thus adding to an increasing pipeline of patients. The current pipeline is already at 48k and will be growing as they close on further agreements.

The key is to have more institutions that start onboarding patients on the platform and not the same institution onboarding 2-3K patients monthly. Slow and steady will absolutely win the race in this case. At the point where Reliq has 6 agreements in place for example, we will be looking at 3k to 4.5k (500-750 each) patients on-boarded monthly, resulting in the addition of 2.25M to 3.4M in additional annual recurring revenue each month that passes. Also, a steady flow of patients will guarantee a better patient experience and increase the satisfaction of the nurses/ doctors with the platform as any issues are dealt with earlier and the strain on the institutions resources is minimized. 

• Milestones & Timeline 

This is an Investment that will continue to add value to its shareholders, and in my opinion one that will pay patient investors very handsomely for their time.
Will this happen in days or weeks, of course not, but we are extremely close to checking a few DD boxes for many investors. For example, receiving positive feedback from running pilots, published white papers, turning ongoing pilots into contracts, announcing new pilots, being cash flow positive, showing strong quarter over quarter revenue growth.

With each one of these milestones, more and more investors will start realizing the value here, thus resulting in successive upward movement in the share price. All the while, Reliq will continue to expand their customer base and thus continue pushing the market cap target higher and higher.
With $38M CAD in annual recurring revenues in the pipeline, multiple mega pilots currently in progress and expected to turn into contracts, a solid management team constantly in discussions to close new pilots, and new contracts and joint ventures, this is the perfect time to be invested in RHT.V.

Bottom line is that Reliq will continue to increase in value as they hit some of the milestones detailed below and it will just keep on going. There is just too much fundamental value here for it to continue to be undervalued.

What could trigger further SP appreciation in the short and medium term?
 
-       Updates on pilots currently in progress (Fieldman, Sacred Heart, and NHS).
-       Successful Pilot Conclusion and White Papers.
-       Commencement of planned pilots (HHS and Sioux Lookout).
-       Announcement of new pilots.
-       Further patient onboarding milestones.
-       Successful addition of 4000 to 5000 patients by year-end.
-       Announcing expansions of current agreements (PAZ / ACO growing and adding additional patients + PAZ / ACO upgrading from current $50USD subscription to the full expended application +$100-200USD)
-       Announcing new home-care contracts using PAZ as a proof of concepts
-       The monetization of anonomised patient data starting when Reliq hits the 20k patient mark.
-       Additional collaborations on MMJ app.
-       Launching the direct to consumer application of the tele-health platform by mid 2018.

The bottom line is that there is absolutely no shortage of expected news flow and we have yet to hit the actual value of current contracts yet.  

• Potential valuation within 9-12 months:

** Note: The below detailed scenarios and respective valuations only consider that Reliq will onboard 48K, 63K, 78K, or 93K patients onto its platform by 2019. These scenarios are only intended to show the impact of additional patients on SP valuation.
Each one of these scenarios only assumes the specified number of patients is onboarded on the platform and assumes no other revenue from other segments of the business (white label agreements, mmj, direct to consumer, other).

I personally think that Reliq has a very good chance of signing and onboarding north of +100K patients by year-end 2019. If it happens, then we would be easily talking about a valuation north of $5 CAD per share.  

**** SO DO NOT BE SHORTSIGHTED WITH THIS INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY ****

Important Note: The below valuations are determined using the following 6 multiples: 3 based on forward looking revenue using multiples of 4, 5 and 6 + 3 based on forward looking Net Income using multiples of 16, 18 and 20.
The average of all 6 valuations was used to calculate the Average SP and the lowest and highest calculated valuations were used to illustrate the range of potential SP valuations detailed below. 
Also, the valuations presented below are based on a fully diluted basis including all options and warrants (including newly announced PP of $5M). However, as stated above the different valuation scenarios are meant to present the different possibilities here, all of which are many multiples from the current share price.

**  Scenario # 1 (48k patients by H1-2019): 12K "PAZ" + 36K “RGVHA
Only the announced deals with PAZ and the RGVHA are executed.
* Forecasted annual revenue of $36M and NI of $25.3M.
* Expected Price per Share =
Average SP using multiples detailed above: 2.67 CAD /share
Range: 1.24 to 4.21 CAD /share

**  Scenario # 2 (63k patients by H1-2019): Scenario 1 + additional 15k patients
In addition to scenario 1, Reliq is able to sign an agreement for additional 15K patients.
* Forecasted annual revenue of $47.25M and NI of $34.3M.
* Expected Share Price over upcoming 9-12 months =
Average SP using multiples detailed above: 3.56 CAD /share
Range: 1.61 to 5.68 CAD /share

**  Scenario # 3 (78k patients by H1-2019): Scenario 2 + additional 15k patients 
In addition to scenario 2, Reliq is able to sign an agreement for additional 15K patients.
* Forecasted annual revenue of $58.5M and NI of $42.8M.
* Expected Share Price over upcoming 9-12 months =
Average SP using multiples detailed above: 4.42 CAD /share
Range: 1.98 to 7.07 CAD /share

**  Scenario # 4 (93k patients by H1-2019): Scenario 3 + additional 15k patients 
In addition to scenario 3, Reliq is able to sign an agreement for additional 15K patients.
* Forecasted annual revenue of $69.75M and NI of $49.8M.
* Expected Share Price over upcoming 9-12 months =
Average SP using multiples detailed above: 6.63 CAD /share
Range: 2.35 to 11.49 CAD /share
 
Key assumptions made for valuation calculations:
Please refer to the below detailed assumptions that were used to calculate the estimated potential value of RHT.V:
-       ‘Outstanding CS + Warrants + Options’ of 103.3M + ‘newly announced PP including warrants’ of 18.75M= Fully Diluted shares of approximately 122M.
-       FX Rate = 1.25 CAD per USD
-       Monthly payment per all patients in all 4 scenarios is assumed to be 50 USD, which is the lowest rate charged by Reliq. The range based on services provided is $50 to $200).
-       Annual fixed expenses for scenario # 1 and #2 = $3.5M.
-       Annual fixed expenses for scenario # 3 = $4M.
-       Annual fixed expenses for scenario # 4 = $6M.
-       Gross margin is equal to 80% across all 4 scenarios.
-       6 cents per share were added to the average (and min and max) of the 6 valuations calculated. This amount is the 7.6M in warrants divided by the fully diluted number of shares.
 
Good Luck to all,
narmar