A recent informative note epitomizes the attitude towards production in Guatemala: "With the motto of" Yes to life, not to mining ", the Nobel laureates of" La Paz "Shrin Ebadi, of Iran; Tawakkol Arman, from Yemn; Jody Williams, from the USA UU; and Rigoberta Mench, from Guatemala, participated in a meeting with women, in Casillas, Santa Rosa "(PL / 27/10/2017). The motto is equivalent to "yes to poverty, not progress".
The behavior of the economy and the outlook are taking their toll on social unrest and political uncertainty. As Paulo de Len, director of Cabi, points out, Guatemala's economy is in the opposite direction of the global trend. While the main stock markets are on the rise and the confidence indexes in the economy are high in North America, the economic indicators in Guatemala are on the downside.
First, the bad news. There is pessimism: the Confidence Index in Economic Activity in September 2017 was at 25, compared to 66.97 in January 2016; a considerable drop in the levels of confidence perception in the economy. According to publications of the Banco de Guatemala, the annualized rate of growth of the economy in the second quarter of 2017 was 2.3%, the lowest in the last eighteen quarters. This rate is equal to that of population growth, so that in per capita terms, growth is at zero. To think about progress, Guatemala's economy needs to grow at annual rates above 5-6%.
The trend of the Monthly Index of Economic Activity (Imae) changed to the drop from the second quarter of 2016. The fall in the importation of capital goods is accentuated as of June 2016; Despite a strong quetzal, the importation of machinery and technology to produce declines. Gross fixed capital formation has been reduced as a percentage of GDP, accentuated by the decline in public investment from 2012-2013. The flow of foreign direct investment has decreased by 35-40% compared to 2014 levels. The downward trend of these investment indicators and capital flows are a bad omen for the dynamism of economic activity in the short term. and medium term.
Banking credit to the private sector reached a year-on-year growth rate close to 14% at the end of 2015 and is currently below 5%, pointing to a slowdown in productive activity and consumption. Guatemala occupies the third-to-last place in the Corruption Perception Index in Latin America, surpassing only Nicaragua and Venezuela. All this is being driven by insecurity and high social conflict, lack of legal certainty, distrust of institutions and political instability. To this is added the growing tide of regulation and state regulation that drowns and imposes costs on formal companies.
The good news is few; the price of oil remains at relatively low levels. As of August, the annual growth rate of exports increased 6% and family remittances continue to increase. This will not get us afloat, not up close.
Political leadership does not have a strategy, objectives and plans that lead to economic growth and progress. The dominant ideological discourse is fundamentally anti-business and anti-production. He spends it describing poverty, preaching inequality and oxygenation of conflict. Yes to conflict, not production; his only proposal is victimization, which only makes poor people.