RE:RE:RE:RE:I put APH fair value now at $17.35Prof... I just wanted to add a few thoughts.
Aphria has clearly positoned themselves as a premier medical marijuana producer. This may change over time when rec market becomes legalized but for now it's safe to say that Aphria has to be considered the number one medical cannabis company in the sector. It's part of their DNA.
When you look at the big three, tobacco, pharma and alcohol, clearly alcohol has the most interest in the cannabis space for "now". Edibiles and beverages will be legalized by 2019 in Canada and have already been legalized in many US states. Alcohol companies need to get moving because they will be the first sector impacted by cannabis.
Of the remaining two sectors, pharma and tobacco, pharma will be the last to jump into the space. Time is on their hands. Research and drug development can take years and I see pharma in no big rush to jump in.
Aphria will want to align themselves down the road with a large medical company such as Pfizer or Johnson & Johnson instead of a tobacco company because of its DNA as a medical cannabis producer.
Aphria will clearly have more time to prove and build their business model than Aurora or Fire, which have less appeal to the pharma and more to alcohol hence an earlier buyout for Aurora or Fire.
I also believe (and I acknowledge Blues input on this point) that Aphria may enter into some form of contractual partnership with TPA before they are aquired. Nothing to prohibit them from entering into a partnership with Anheuser-Busch or Diageo where Aph owns 51% interest and their partner owns 49% in a newly incorporated entity. Same busines model LHS is following in Ohio.
Also, in hindsight, the US assets owned by Aphria might be acting as a shield to a hostile takeover. Bruce Linton did say no large company in the TPA sector would want to acquire Aphria becuase of their US holdings. I would take that one step further and say that Aphria can be compliant with the TSX while holding US assets indirectly and have those same US assets act as a shield to a hostile takeover. On a friendly takeover they could easily divest the US assets to make it happen.
If Aphria continues to build out their business model through to Phase IV including the 200 acres on Mersea Road, build internationally with countries like Argentina and conitnue to grow their US footprint through LHS, you now have the foundation of what would be a truly global player in the cannabis sector.
If management sticks to a 3 to 5 year timeframe before entertaining a buyout, shareholders will be rewarded beyond their wildest dreams. Of course this is assuming Aphria continues to expand profitably. This is how you go about maximizing shareholder value.
Look at age of Board of Directors. Vic, 63, is having the most fun of his career. Cole is 61, John is late 40's .. Carl is key to keeping everything together. This board has it in them to go another 3 to 5 years before handing off the torch. They will be well rewarded and they deserve every dime they get.
Only shortsighted investors would want a premature takeover. I'm fairly confident that mgmt's goals are aligned with shareholders goals and mgmt will make all the right moves to maximize shareholder value. For those who dont want to wait around you can always sell your shares in the open market.
Looking forward to January's Q2 2018 return.
M
ProfCornelius wrote: Yes, they are Buck..APHRIA is on the radar of a few multinationals for sure. the difference between APH and WEED though is that APH is much harder to take control of. Unlike WEED, the Founders and management of APH still control approx. 20 million shares of APH.
Someone give me the actual number please. Also, APH's management has ties to many other large and small shareholders who are loyal to them. I guess what I am saying is that it would have to be an amazing offer for the APH Founders and executives to relinquish control.
As for the TMX issue, we'll just have to see how it plays out. No worries.
Prof
Buckshot26 wrote: Yes I get that, but I think we will just have to agree to disagree on what needs to be done. this is no longer about the TSX, big alcohol, tobacco and pharma are circling...
ProfCornelius wrote: Buck,
I am not here to argue but I will say unequivocally that APH will NOT spin off LHS.
LHS acquiring Copperstate will put all of APH's US assets at "arm's length" on the CSE and fully satisfy the TMX. Remember, the TMX is more culpable than APH in this situation and wants to amicably resolve this matter.
I have partaken in several of the earlier APH raises and have a very good idea of what is going on.
I am part of the old guard and do not believe that neither myself or any of the other loyal contributors to this board have done anyone a disservice.
The 50% is obvious and I agree with you but that's just the start.
I've heard a development about APH today that even rocked my business world.
I'm calling for $17.50 by July 1st next year! IMHO
Prof
Buckshot26 wrote: as I've said before, remove the American assets and we should have a similiar market cap to Aurora.
ACB 465 million shares fully diluted @ $5.97= $2.776 Billion
APH 160 million shares fully diluted @ $9.17= $1.467 Billion
Other noteable is Medreleaf which now has a $1.8Billion mkt cap and only plans to expand to 35,000kgs in 250,000 square feet.
The old guard continues to do everyone here a diservice. IMO, Aphria will fly like you have never seen before the moment it is announced that the US assets are being spun out.
The boiler room crew here should really consider stfu, some of us are here to make money and it is pretty easy to see now that the mistakes made have proved rediculously expensive.
OHio license
LHS acquires Copperstate
APH spins out LHS holdings to APH shareholders
We make 50%.
PERIOD