RE:RE:go figure I must be nuts. I'm out! The numbers were not that bad. For the Q I had OCF of $37M and Interest Expense of $11M for Operating Profit of $26M.
There is plenty of cash and cash flow to pay down the debt principle and service the interest.
The terms of the debt agreements with both DB and the bankers are not very favorable to MPVD, but can be dealt with.
Cash Costs are $80 ton in line with the FS, but, are going up 25% next year, so I did some pro-formas, at $100 ton the operating costs increase 25% above 3Q 2017, from $22.8M to $28.5M which would make the Pro-Forma numbers closer to $31M EBITDA and $20M Operating Profit, after interest expense.
Note I have taken OUT the fairly large gain in foreign currency adjustments because they are non operating, hence reduce the headline reported EBITDA and OCF numbers for the 3rd Q!
So between the extra capital costs in 2018 to BUY the equipment to push back the pitwall, and the reduced OCF due to having to strip more, plus, the not to be forgotten diamond prices realized for MPVD that are so far OFF the FS numbers, I figure enough is enough here for me with this project and company.
GLTA and hope for a diamond price rebound in 2019. IMO the equity is fair valued here
on a multiple of OCF and EV/EBITDA. Adjusted EBITDA is about $31M going forward in 2018 Quarterly. About $125M annualized. PLus DB has to get paid eventually on their loan too. What have we, about 7-8X EV/EBITDA. .