Correction on BMO and TD NAVMy misunderstanding. The NAV wasn't applied to the entire resource. When they came up with a high value NAV at a conservative discount of 10% and 12%, I thought they dropped the head grade for mill feed in order to obtain a higher NAV. Not so. It appears that they are assuming a lot more high grade ore than exists at this time in a 6 + 6 + 6, 18 Mtpa mining scenario.That said, I don't know where all this extra ore is coming from. It's true the resource has expanded, but without detailed drill results we can't know by how much, and what proportion of this new resource meets the minimum head grade requirement for mill feed.
We know from the June resource update that the 8 Mtpa scenario processes 179.4 Mt at an average grade of 4.68% for the life of mine (Table24-25). NPV 8% in this scenario is $4.748 billion. IVN share is 40%, or $1.9 billion.
$1.9 billion/ 0.786 billion shares = $2.42 USD share, $3.06 CAD
Yet the BMO NAV of $8 for IVN, assigns 75% to Kamoa-Kakula, or $6.00 CAD share at a higher discount rate. This means the high grade portion of the resource has more than doubled when using a higher discount. We already know the old resource is outdated, but I don't see how they can arrive at such a valuation without detailed drill results. I'll reserve judgment and see what the upcoming PEA reveals in the 12 Mtpa mining scenario. We'll have a better idea how much the high grade portion of the resource has expanded through last May. I'm not willing to assume abundant high grade ore since May if the Company does not provide a detailed account of drilling. They could just as easily drilled 1, 2 or 3% grade, which would fail to meet the minimum head grade requirement for mill feed.