OTCQX:NTTHF - Post by User
Comment by
superscepticon Nov 16, 2017 11:24am
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Post# 26976655
RE:RE:RE:RE:Alternative Lithium Plays
RE:RE:RE:RE:Alternative Lithium PlaysPartially agreed.
There is big difference between speculation and invstments. If you guess and hope to get qucik buck on some "catalizators" or so you are pure speculator (nothing wrong about it either).
If you read reports, try to predict l-t trend, do not worry about temporarily fluctuations or couple years s/p stagnation as long as things get done on the field, this is different story.
NLC is in between.
There is no uncerainity with supply, investors do not care about "new brine story" - it take a decade to make this story work. There is a lot of knowns. We know when ORL ramp up finish. We know additional Li supply form FMC or SQM, we know when LAC will start production. Some deviations exist, just go to LAC presentation and you will see yearly supply plans. Extra 20-50K/year (unexpected development) would affect 5-7% of pricing.
You can invest using this info (together with NLC knowns, such as resource estimation, PEA).
Demand is different story. It is based on consumer preferences, product cost, politicians, etc. This makes NLC a (part time) speculation (together with unknowns, such as pump tests).
That is why I asked for new Demand Forecast link.