Tax loss.......hmmmmmmmI think we shall suffer a few weeks of tax loss selling.....which means great time to accumulate if you like AKG's prospects. Analysts are sitting back with "holds" waiting for management to confirm what they plan for 2018 and beyond.
The new properties to the South are fantastic, but they will contribute value for the long-term, nothing immediate. They need to drill, define, permit, etc. But there is definate blue sky potential there.
The main thing that will bring value is to get Essase online, and for that they need the conveyor. The timeline for the conveyor is the question. Initially, it was to be financed with cash on hand, but the current fiscals lead to the prediction that it will be delayed by another year. I think everybody wants to start building the conveyor so that Essase can start providing ore around end-2019 (it will take 18 months to build). The prospect of over 400,000 oz per year is great, and they need to show they keep on track with development plans. In parallel to the conveyor, there are the upgrades to the mill needed to get to 10M tonnes, so yeah, need some money.
That is where Red Kite will come in. Management is currently working with Red Kite on a debt package to start building the belt next year (no share dilution). We will probably know more later in Dec, or maybe Jan. When that financing is announced, AKG will get re-rated with buys and we shall start to climb out of these lows immediately.
Me? I'm loading up last week of Dec. Tax loss selling will end, financing announced, everybody will rush to buy back shares in January. If you buy back in with the herd in January, you'll be spending 50% for your shares.
Bottom line - AKG has real and valuable assets. Shorts are overplayed with deceiving information, there were a few unexpected hiccups, but the gold is there. They have great revenue. They just need to confirm their plan on getting to >400K oz.