US shale production has been overestimated this year and ReIn 2018. Here is why,
1. As per EIA, the recent weekly production numbers is over 200k bpd more than monthly number!
2. When some so called but hired experts said US shale production to increase by one million bpd this year, they were using the highest number in 2017 (overestimated) to compare with the lowest number in 2016. This was intended to misleading! Nobody does comparison this way!
3. It is easier to increase oil production from 8.6 bpd to 9.6bpd because 9.6bpd was the ability the US had in 2015. This is likely the maximum ability of US oil producers. When so called experts and hired analysts forecast US oil production would increase by another one million barrels per day in 2018, did they ever ask themselves where to find so much crews and equipment to do the work! To be a swing oil player, you need a huge reserve of talent and equipment. The US does not have the reserve and it cannot happen overnight. Investment into the reserve of talent and equipment costs huge time and money, and people would only do it when they feel confidence in oil price which is not at such level yet!
4. OPEC cut is temporary even it extends to the end of 2018. OPEC cut is to boost oil price. As the biggest swing producer, OPEC has the ability to increase production immediately. Shale companies had been performing so disappointing so far this year that investors are not happy and supportive to further production growth. If the big shale bosses are smarter enough, they should focus on profitability rather than production expansion. The good thing is that the market is now telling them this.
Read more at https://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard?symbol=athof&postid=27033453#2FHrCKH4sJQxWCXK.99