RE:Back with a positive newsThis is a great writeup by Greystone, and very, very thorough analysis. I reached out to the PM to discuss further (he's on Twitter)...I think he's a bit conservative on the multiple and on his FCF/share estimate personally. I think they can get to $0.40/share of FCF on a pro forma basis for FY 2018 - and actually achieve and surpass this level in FY 2019 - if they complete USD$30M of expected M&A and the 7.1M share buyback.
Also, as I've mentioned here previously, healthcare services names like the drug distributors and non-hospital service providers (such as Davita) trade at ~16x FCF across the cycle. I would argue further that CRH should trade higher than that (arguably ~20x) because of the quality of the business and the higher growth prospects vs. those comps. That gets me to a $6.40-$8.00 target by 2019, which is in line with Greystone in terms of the target, but faster by about 1-2 years as long as Mr. Market gives credit for the entire PF earnings number (and no additional payor cuts).
Happy to see other buyside firms paying attention to this story, and hope to see more positive news soon.