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Alio Gold Inc. T.ALO

"Alio Gold Inc is a gold mining company. It is engaged in exploration, development and production in Mexico. Its projects include San Francisco mine in Sonora, Mexico and the development stage Ana Paula project in Guerrero, Mexico."


TSX:ALO - Post by User

Comment by auburn2on Nov 29, 2017 7:50am
112 Views
Post# 27052480

RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Down we go again

RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Down we go againgannddolph, as usual your post impresses but you are not entirely honest. Before going over all the details, let's look at the closing paragraph:

"What puzzles me most of all is why investors like yourself would pay over $3 USD per share for a stock that wants to be a two mine gold producer 3 years from now and needs to borrow $130 million to get there, but think that a two mine gold producer with an Ana Paula in production and no long term debt, producing 125k ounces gold equivalent annually and priced at 15 cents per share is not worthy of investment?"

First, it is pointless comparing share prices when ORV has multiples more shares outstanding. Second, ALO wants about $95 million of debt, not $130. Third, AISC of AP will be much lower than El Valle.

A doubling of AP reserves is very possible. Compare drill results of the two deposits and you will see based on current drilling AP looks much better, and is as you note fully virgin. It is an early stage world-class gold belt.

My issue with ORV is that current assets barely cover current liabilities. With high AISC and the inherently risky nature of gold mining, I'd like to see a better cushion. Compare June 30, 2017 to Sept 30, 2016. The balance sheet looks very similar except that current liabilities increased by $14mn. Obviously any further increases like that would be potentially catastrophic.

Finally, ALO offers much better liquidity. On the recent cat bounce I was able to trim my position. If you need out of ORV, which may well be the case if current liabilities begin creeping up for whatever reason, who is going to buy your share and at which price?

With as many variables as ORV has, and the less than pristine balance sheet, I would want to see an insider buy of at least 50,000 shares. At current prices that's under $10,000 worth in CAD - not too much to ask.

In the meantime, a map of the Alio area where 90% of the concessiong holding AP remains unexplored:

User image

I got that from this article: https://www.juniorminingnetwork.com/junior-miner-news/press-releases/896-tsx/alo/36350-alio-gold-to-commence-underground-decline-and-exploration-program-at-ana-paula-project.html

Comparing these drill results to the latest out of ORV, you should be able to see it is a superior ore body.

For ORV to make any money they need higher gold prices, and that is assuming they meet their guidance figures. Meanwhile the reserves are under 300,000 ounces at Sept 30, 2016. The "resources" are much better but for more on the difference between the two, see here: https://www.24hgold.com/english/contributor.aspx?article=2373604682G10020&contributor=Mickey+Fulp


Don’t forget that most junior resource companies are simply “mining the stock market”. Few have potentially viable Resources let alone economic Reserves.

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