BC...worst place in Canada for resource extraction A handful of years ago, British Columbia’s immense natural gas deposits caught the attention of top global investors eager to produce them and export liquefied natural gas to Asia. Now they’d rather put their cash almost anywhere else.
According to the Fraser Institute’s Global Petroleum Survey 2017, oil and gas investor perception of British Columbia has plummeted since the election of an NDP/Green government last May and the province now ranks as the least attractive jurisdiction in Canada, followed by Alberta.
But Alberta, also run by an NDP government, improved its global ranking to 33rd among 97 jurisdictions, from 43rd out of 96 evaluated last year, while B.C. fell to 76th from 39th, according to the survey of 333 oil and gas executives.
“Investor confidence matters, and having a government that’s openly hostile to resource development has apparently sent a chill throughout the oil and gas industry,” said Kenneth Green, senior director of the Fraser Institute’s Centre for Natural Resources and co-author with Ashley Stedman of the 11th annual scorecard.
B.C., which dropped to the bottom 25 per cent of global oil and gas jurisdictions, is not in good company. The province fared worse than Myanmar, Tanzania and Romania in the survey, and slightly better than Mexico, onshore Spain and Bangladesh. The least attractive jurisdiction globally is Venezuela.
Since British Columbia’s NDP and Green parties signed an agreement to form government May 29, investors have grown concerned about investment barriers like political instability, fiscal terms and the cost of regulatory compliance, in addition to disputed land claims and protected areas, the survey found.
The province’s ruling parties abandoned the idea of a revenue neutral carbon tax and instead pledged to raise the tax rate by 66 per cent over the next four years. Both parties are opposed to the Kinder Morgan Trans Mountain pipeline expansion, oppose (or want to re-examine) the Site C hydro dam, while the Green Party is opposed to liquefied natural gas production as well.
Since the new political leadership in B.C., Malaysia’s Petronas cancelled its $36 billion Pacific NorthWest LNG project and China’s CNOOC Ltd. cancelled its $28 billion Aurora LNG project. A year ago, the federal Liberal government set the pace when it cancelled the Northern Gateway oil pipeline and announced an oil tanker moratorium for the Northern B.C. coast.
Alberta’s latest improvement isn’t big enough to make up for the steep drop in perceptions since the NDP government was elected in 2015 and brought in more regulation and higher taxes, including higher corporate and personal income taxes. In 2014, Alberta, with the third largest petroleum reserves in the world, was ranked 14th globally out of 156 jurisdictions.
Survey respondents say the carbon tax added costs and ultimately decreased Alberta’s competitiveness, causing investment to re-locate.
Elsewhere in Canada, Newfoundland rose to become Canada’s top ranked province, and to fourth most attractive global jurisdiction, from 25th last year. The province won kudos for improvements in fiscal terms, regulatory duplication and inconsistencies.
Saskatchewan dropped to 7th this year, from 4th last year. Saskatchewan is an investor favourite because it opposes the carbon tax and has efficient regulation.
The big survey winners are concentrated in the United States, where oil and gas investors are pouring money in shale plays that produce quick returns.
Six U.S. states were ranked in the 10 global jurisdictions – Texas (ranked No. 1), Oklahoma, North Dakota, West Virginia, Kansas and Wyoming.
With the U.S. administration pursuing major tax reforms and reducing regulatory red tape for the energy industry, American jurisdictions could be viewed even more favourably in coming years, Green said.
“The shackles are being taken off the U.S. energy sector, which spells trouble for Canadian jurisdictions trying to attract oil and gas investment dollars.”
Green said oil and gas investors watch policy changes closely and respond quickly if they feel an area’s risk has increased. Investment decisions tend to be 40 per cent based on policy and 60 per cent on the quality of the resource.
“Canada is plagued by regulatory uncertainty and legal disputes, which is preventing our resources from accessing new markets,” said one unnamed survey participant. “The window of opportunity for Canada’s LNG industry is closing and major energy opportunities are being lost. Disputes between the provinces and the federal government are causing excessive delays and will result in fewer economic opportunities for Canada.”
A region’s investment attractiveness can also quickly rebound if policies become more favourable — though it takes longer in Canada to regain investor confidence because projects tend to be located in remote areas where skilled labour and management capabilities are harder to rebuild, Green said.
“Canada — particularly with what seems to be absolute gridlock on transport of oil and gas and export of LNG — is on the brink of its most capable energy jurisdictions staying in the very lowest level of the rankings, with Texas, and Oklahoma and other areas basically capturing the profits that Canada is walking away from,” he said.
Financial Post