Analysing financials for profitability forecastHey guys ! Trying to analyze those numbers... I don't have any formation regarding accounting and stuff but I guess you guys can help me out.
I read some stuff on this board about profitability by the end of the years in the past weeks, but seeing those numbers, I have to come to the conclusion that it was pure ol' pumpin'.
Here is my take :
First, lets pretend the deal with the miner really pumps in 400 000 a year as a user on this board claimed. I wanna state that I doubt the number, since i believe you'd give some sort of early adopter deal... but still... lets pretend its 400 000. Make it 300 000 a year since costs of sales seems to be aroudn 25 % of the revenues.
Let's continue
Revenues are 180k and expenses 530k for a 351k loss in 2017 Q3.
Lets add the 100 000 a quarter to that revenue and we're at 280K + 8% growth (8% X 180 000 = roughly 15 000.
So lets average this all up to 300k by the end of the 2017 4th quarter.
Assuming the expenses dont change, we re still 230K under.
At that rythm, we would need at least 3 contract the size of the miner to break even. I highly believe in ID, but it seems a bit of a strech to get 3 huge companies within a single quarter as those kinds of business agreements needs more than a dinner at Tim hortons to conclude.
Also, you wanna make sure you have all the ressources to support implementation and after sale services so you get good feedback and can hope to get other major deals.
I believe we might get 1 a quarter if we stay conservative.
That would bring profitability somewhere in the 3rd quarter of 2018, to be conservative.
Of course it can happen sooner, but maybe its better to not gobble more than we can chew and grow steadily and correctly.
Your argumented views are most welcome ! Do your own dd, and please, PLEASE, no pumper or basher.