TSX:HSE.PR.B - Post by User
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Olympicon Dec 05, 2017 10:17am
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Post# 27092599
MIT study questions EIA assumptions on US shale production
MIT study questions EIA assumptions on US shale productionMIT published a study that calls into questions the assumptions of the EIA on the continued growth of the US shale play. The study suggests that production gains during the last few years is the result of selective drilling at sweet spots so as to achieve low break even rates given the depressed oil prices. Such sweet spots are limited and existing wells are short-to-mid term producers. The EIA assumes the growth is from technilogical advantages alone, with no accomodation for the practice of selective drilling. The study further suggests US shale growth projects may be overstated by as much as 10% by 2020 ... approximately overstated by 1 million bbl/day.
The EIA in response has commented that the MIT study raises valid points. I wonder what, if any, revision to growth estimates the EIA may consider in their January release of the Annual Energy Outlook.
Article: www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-01/mit-study-suggests-u-s-vastly-overstates-oil-output-forecasts
Study: www.sciencedirect.com/science/authShare/S0306261917302611/20170321T172000Z/1?md5=53b88b2f42bb984a7461ba9fe82da083&cookieChk=y
Bakken Break-even Calculator: www.shalestats.com/