RE:Eyes on the forest.Your analysis is flawed. It's not just about the rigs, it's also about where they are targetting and the type of fracs.
In just a few short years, productivity has increased so that fewer rigs are needed for more oil.
Also, the rigs are located on the sweet spots where oil flows stronger.
Look at the quarterly reports from NA oil companies.
Now next month, we'll see 2018 budgets and I GUARANTEE they will be significantly higher than 2017.
This is Game Theory 101 right now, and I think that the fractured (no pun intended) shale drilling market will keep going pedal to the metal. The leaders of the big guys (CLR, PXD, EOG) recently tried to send a message warning the smaller guys to cut down on growth, but they couldn't be more overt about it since it would be collusion and anti-competitive.