RE:RE:RE:am i on the wrong planetIt certainly does appear to be. That said, I initially bought too high and have had to do all sorts of wierd and wonderful trading to get my effective average down and make the portfolio situation less ugly. I wanted to just buy and hold for a bit but have ended doing about 15 trades in the past week and a half. I still need HNU at about $3.95 to be in the green and every day, it goes for a nasty roller coaster ride. I am definitely about ready for the manipulation to ease up ...
I would have to think we're close:
1. European supply issues had countries like Italy saying they were near to a supply emergency just a few days ago. UK prices at 4 year highs due to supply and infrastructure issues, etc. Cold weather in Europe and supply issues mean that maybe LNG imports become more economical more quickly than expected
2. Supplies are well below 5 year average at this time with some healthy-sized draws in the works
3. Dec will alsmot certainly average out much colder than last year or the year before, and possibly below the 5 years average. Weather forecasts and recent weather are pointing to a really big draw next week. A good sized though slightly smaller draw looks likely this coming week and we have makings of a third big draw in the last week of Dec.
4. Prices definitely seem artificially low and there are lots of signs of manipultion. Lots of shorts must be thinking about covering soon in light of demand factors and the very low prices.
5. China and many other countries are increasingly switching from coal fired generation to cleaner options like natural gas or uranium. This should help grow demand for LNG exports.
On the flip side, deregulation activities by trump administration mean that there won't be very many regulatory or environmental limits on fracking activities which, for now equates to cheap and abundant supply. The trump administration's lack of environmental concern also means that cheap coal is getting a bit more of a lease on life (even though in many cases, cleaner options are still being pursued because of initiatives that started before last US election or because of state-level regulations and clean air initiatives). Also, while there is a lot of hype from Washington, there is quite a big difference between something being tweeted or put out as an "executive order" and something actually being legally implemented and passed through congress, etc. There are also scientific indicators already that fracking is not going to produce the vast/cheap oversupply that was once assumed. However, that reality check is taking a while.
I definitely think the long term looks promising and also feel that a run is quite overdue. However, as we've already been seeing, the games look like they can go on happily in the face of logic and fundamentals..... and make this stock quite a pain in the ...