RE:Stock Price Valuations - Actual vs ProjectedI went a completely different route, and didn't take into consideration EBITDA. Is this the wrong approach?
$5 a gram sale
$1.61 all-in cost per gram
$3.39
100,000,000 grams grown x 3.39 = 339,000,000
339,000,000 / 159,000,000 shares outstanding = 2.13 EPS
2.13 x 20 PE = $42.60 per share once Phase 4 is online.
Things to factor : $1.61 all-in cost is conservative since it is expected to drop by this time next year.
Are my valuations insane? Help me out here please, I don't know how you came up with 30% EBITDA.
Duediligence33 wrote: I saw some figures on Reddit (TheCannalysts) by GoBlue2016 and I thought I would expand on that thread.
Remember that the market is looking 6 to 12 mohts ahead on what the share prie will be and will buy now according to potential profits.
No listed LP is now trading on current Actual production capacity or revenue or profits (if any) but on the Potential projected expansion plans (has to be funded) and future revenue and EBITDA.
The current frothy and hyped share prices of most LP's is due to the unprecedented unkown
value of the future recreational market transfer from the multi billion dollar illegal cannabis trade to the legal one.
The medical market is already priced in and growing and providing healthy revenue to many producing LP's. Aphria will have an edge here wiht he Shoppers Drug Mart deal.
GoBlue wrote :
Phase 3 will yield 30,000 kgs and times $6/gram = $180 m revenue
Times 30% EBITDA = $54 m
Divided by 150 m shares = $0.36 first revenue from Phase 3 by May/18
He did not give any value to the deployment of cash from the October bought deal of $92 million nor the 100 million from the December bought deal
He goes on top say times 20 P/E = $7.20 per share and times 30 P/E = $10.80 per share
So using these figures by December 2018 the 90,000 kg (less than the 100,000 expected)for from Phase 4 would TRIPLE the sp
20 P/E = $ 21.60
30 P/E = $ 32.80
the average is $ 27.10 by December 2018
So simply holding now at $ 14.38 to next Christmas is almost a 100 % GAIN
Extra Bonus :
1. Nuuvera collaboration on 200 acre Mersea site for 2 more million sq ft (200,000 kg)
2. US assets Copperstate to be rolled into Liberty Health
3. Current 33 % stake in LHS (florida asset)
4. Suprise Investments with $ 180,000,000 cash from 2 bought deals
5. Phase 3 and 4 fully funded from previus raises - no further dilution needed
Over Christmas we look forward to early great January quarterly results and the "imminent" news that Prof has alluded to.
other Good news I expect is :
1. TSX issue resolved satisfactorily with undertaking to devolve the US assets into LHS.
2. TSX composite listing on Dec 18 will raise profile and prestige for fund buying
3. SDM gets LP status from HC to sell online medical
4. Later all Pharmacies are allowed medical in store sales after rec sales is allowed in stores
5. Senate rubber stamps C-45 and C-46 by April
I hope everyone has great holidays knowing they hold a successfully run company by reputable experienced people commited to their shareholders.
Michael