Northern Spirit Resources Inc. Rights V.NS

RE:RE:RE:ATU's key metrics

[Method]

stockfy wrote: Method, if you do the math, you will find current Enterprise Value at $50 million.

Based on  1,000 boepd production, ATU trades at $50,000/boepd.

EV/ Annualized Cash Flow is above 6 times.

These are not low metrics for an oil-weighted junior producer with significant heavy oil production and unproven uncharted acreage. They are too high. Just my two cents.

Method wrote:

stockfy wrote: Method, find ATU's Enterprise Value, its production, its 2P reserves.

Divide EV by production to find $/boepd

Divide EV by boe to find $/boe

Divide EV by the company's annualized cash flow

All these key metrics are very high among the oil-weighted peers. ATU is just a small junior producer.

See also the company's acreage in the Presentation. ATU has small assets (few acres) here and there spread all over Alberta, which doesn't lead to scale and efficiencies.

Just my two cents.

 

I have done that and find it cheap on EV/DACF and EV/boe vs peers based on 2018 estimates. That’s why I wanted to see what you came up with and what you were comparing it to. 

I was running my numbers before their recent guidance which I think is conservative. They may end up increasing capex as they year moves on. That being said, you are using trailing production. Since they are going to average 1260 BOE/D next year, will they exit 2018 closer to 1500 boe/d, in which case at the same multiple, the stock will have 50% upside. I can be patient and think reserves will also grow quickly. 

Just St my two cents.