RE:RE:What bullchitThere is a bit of comedy in all this as well. As with statistics, there is always a way to support one agenda versus the other with different facets of the same information.
Yes, for example, Mon/Tues weather was above historic averages. However, every other day in the past 12 has been below average in most of the areas where there is heavy heating consumption. Also, there is comparison to 5 year average and there is comparison to the past 2 years. If you look at the past two years, we're colder even in the brief interlude of warmer weather. Though we are looking at futures, things which should factor in such as european prices at 3 times our levels and China having to turn off heating at government building this past week due to natural gas shortage *should* factor in. LNG exports have become quite economically viable. The notion that many producers will continue producing at a loss indefinitely also kind of defies logic.
Heating consumption is obviously important. It's going to be pretty hard after about Friday to make any kind of "warm weather" case for a while and that may shift some of the trading "news" towards the up-side part of equation and cause some of big traders who are short to change hats for a while and promote the up side.
All this aside, it's important to realize that natural gas isn't always going to make sense on fundamentals. I think you'll anyone trading this will have a hard time until they start treating natural gas as speculative and driven heavily by whatever the big money managers have on the agenda, at least to a degree. There still needs to be some kind of a case for justifying what happens on a daily basis. However, that case need not be airtight or anything close to it.